Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 4?

根据「Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 4?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，27°C 以压倒性的 6,800% 获胜概率主导市场；28°C 以 2,000% 位居第二，29°C 以 1,250% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $32.3K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• 27°C (6,800%)：27°C 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 6,800¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $4.4K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• 28°C (2,000%)：作为最可行的替代选项，28°C 保持着 2,000% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 2,000¢。
• 29°C (1,250%)：以 1,250% 的概率位列第三，市场对 29°C 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 30°C (300%)、31°C or higher (25%)，以及 21°C or below (5%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 22°C 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt

If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.

In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.