Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
核心摘要
根据「Ethereum above ___ on September 9?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，1,900 以压倒性的 9,995% 获胜概率主导市场；2,000 以 9,980% 位居第二，2,100 以 9,980% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $109.5K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- 1,900 (9,995%)：1,900 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,995¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $2.5K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- 2,000 (9,980%)：作为最可行的替代选项，2,000 保持着 9,980% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 9,980¢。
- 2,100 (9,980%)：以 9,980% 的概率位列第三，市场对 2,100 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）
在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：
- 替代选项：包括 2,200 (9,975%)、2,300 (9,940%)，以及 2,400 (9,625%)。
- 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 2,500 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1,900 | 9995.0% | $2.5K | 9995¢ | -9895¢ |
| 2 | 2,000 | 9980.0% | $7.8K | 9980¢ | -9880¢ |
| 3 | 2,100 | 9980.0% | $6.5K | 9980¢ | -9880¢ |
| 4 | 2,200 | 9975.0% | $10.1K | 9975¢ | -9875¢ |
| 5 | 2,300 | 9940.0% | $8.6K | 9940¢ | -9840¢ |
| 6 | 2,400 | 9625.0% | $8.3K | 9625¢ | -9525¢ |
| 7 | 2,500 | 4700.0% | $5.8K | 4700¢ | -4600¢ |
| 8 | 2,600 | 485.0% | $29.1K | 485¢ | -385¢ |
| 9 | 2,700 | 120.0% | $21.2K | 120¢ | -20¢ |
| 10 | 2,800 | 20.0% | $9.7K | 20¢ | 80¢ |
| 11 | 2,900 | 20.0% | $2.6K | 20¢ | 80¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Sep 8, 2026
- 09:34 AM00001nrt$0.56
Bought 56 No for Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on September 9? at 0.01
- 09:32 AMGTgt197$0.80
Bought 0.89 Yes for Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on September 9? at 0.9
- 09:32 AM0X0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452$43.20
Bought 48 Yes for Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on September 9? at 0.9
- 08:47 AM——$1.35
Bought 1.50444 Yes for Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on September 9? at 0.9
- 08:47 AM0X0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452$81.88
Bought 92 Yes for Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on September 9? at 0.89
- 08:45 AM——$1.35
Bought 1.516854 Yes for Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on September 9? at 0.89
- 08:44 AM——$1.35
Bought 1.516854 Yes for Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on September 9? at 0.89
- 08:40 AM——$1.35
Bought 1.516854 Yes for Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on September 9? at 0.89
- 08:38 AM——$1.35
Bought 1.516854 Yes for Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on September 9? at 0.89
- 08:35 AM——$1.35
Bought 1.516854 Yes for Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on September 9? at 0.89
- 08:14 AMBOborisfadeev97$12.00
Bought 37.5 Yes for Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on September 9? at 0.32
- 08:14 AM0X0xBC72cbcE905533B6CC0eA4722035dDe9Bab2d4F8-1771412137473$30.00
Bought 43.478261 No for Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on September 9? at 0.69
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「Ethereum above ___ on September 9?」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，1,900 以 9,995% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 2,000（9,980%），以及 2,100（9,980%）。该市场总成交量已达 $109.5K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。