Ethereum above ___ on September 11?
核心摘要
根据「Ethereum above ___ on September 11?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，2,000 以压倒性的 9,895% 获胜概率主导市场；2,100 以 9,885% 位居第二，2,200 以 9,880% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $67.1K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- 2,000 (9,895%)：2,000 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,895¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $1 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- 2,100 (9,885%)：作为最可行的替代选项，2,100 保持着 9,885% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 9,885¢。
- 2,200 (9,880%)：以 9,880% 的概率位列第三，市场对 2,200 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）
在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：
- 替代选项：包括 2,300 (9,590%)、2,400 (8,350%)，以及 2,500 (4,800%)。
- 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 2,600 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2,000 | 9895.0% | $1 | 9895¢ | -9795¢ |
| 2 | 2,100 | 9885.0% | — | 9885¢ | -9785¢ |
| 3 | 2,200 | 9880.0% | $2.3K | 9880¢ | -9780¢ |
| 4 | 2,300 | 9590.0% | $136 | 9590¢ | -9490¢ |
| 5 | 2,400 | 8350.0% | $10.1K | 8350¢ | -8250¢ |
| 6 | 2,500 | 4800.0% | $1.7K | 4800¢ | -4700¢ |
| 7 | 2,600 | 1650.0% | $1.2K | 1650¢ | -1550¢ |
| 8 | 2,700 | 410.0% | $16.9K | 410¢ | -310¢ |
| 9 | 2,800 | 160.0% | $21.5K | 160¢ | -60¢ |
| 10 | 2,900 | 120.0% | $4.4K | 120¢ | -20¢ |
| 11 | 3,000 | 115.0% | $8.9K | 115¢ | -15¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Sep 8, 2026
- 10:00 PMKIkingofcoinflips$499.58
Bought 632.38 Yes for Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on September 11? at 0.79
- 10:00 PMBABalancedmind$4.15
Bought 5.253161 Yes for Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on September 11? at 0.79
- 10:00 PMMTmtm101$9.99
Bought 12.65 Yes for Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on September 11? at 0.79
- 07:51 PM——$1.35
Bought 1.551723 No for Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 11? at 0.87
- 07:03 PMKIkingofcoinflips$530.92
Bought 663.65 Yes for Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on September 11? at 0.8
- 06:58 PMKIkingofcoinflips$512.13
Bought 648.27 Yes for Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on September 11? at 0.79
- 06:50 PMKIkingofcoinflips$511.85
Bought 647.91 Yes for Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on September 11? at 0.79
- 06:42 PMDEDedOleg777$1.03
Bought 34.482759 Yes for Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 11? at 0.03
- 05:57 PMMTmtm101$10.00
Bought 11.9 No for Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 11? at 0.84
- 05:32 PMMTmtm101$10.00
Bought 11.9 No for Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 11? at 0.84
- 05:10 PMKIkingofcoinflips$547.71
Bought 676.19 Yes for Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on September 11? at 0.81
- 05:00 PMKIkingofcoinflips$562.32
Bought 685.75 Yes for Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on September 11? at 0.82
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「Ethereum above ___ on September 11?」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，2,000 以 9,895% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 2,100（9,885%），以及 2,200（9,880%）。该市场总成交量已达 $67.1K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。