Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?
核心摘要
根据「Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，180-199 以压倒性的 2,250% 获胜概率主导市场；200-219 以 2,250% 位居第二，220-239 以 1,700% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $97.8K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- 180-199 (2,250%)：180-199 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 2,250¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $1.1K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- 200-219 (2,250%)：作为最可行的替代选项，200-219 保持着 2,250% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 2,250¢。
- 220-239 (1,700%)：以 1,700% 的概率位列第三，市场对 220-239 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）
在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：
- 替代选项：包括 160-179 (1,550%)、240-259 (950%)，以及 140-159 (700%)。
- 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 260-279 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 180-199 | 2250.0% | $1.1K | 2250¢ | -2150¢ |
| 2 | 200-219 | 2250.0% | $1.3K | 2250¢ | -2150¢ |
| 3 | 220-239 | 1700.0% | $1.5K | 1700¢ | -1600¢ |
| 4 | 160-179 | 1550.0% | $130 | 1550¢ | -1450¢ |
| 5 | 240-259 | 950.0% | $1.2K | 950¢ | -850¢ |
| 6 | 140-159 | 700.0% | $761 | 700¢ | -600¢ |
| 7 | 260-279 | 445.0% | $14 | 445¢ | -345¢ |
| 8 | 280-299 | 215.0% | $34 | 215¢ | -115¢ |
| 9 | 120-139 | 165.0% | $231 | 165¢ | -65¢ |
| 10 | 300-319 | 150.0% | $48 | 150¢ | -50¢ |
| 11 | 100-119 | 125.0% | $9.9K | 125¢ | -25¢ |
| 12 | 320-339 | 85.0% | $532 | 85¢ | 15¢ |
| 13 | 340-359 | 70.0% | $110 | 70¢ | 30¢ |
| 14 | 80-99 | 60.0% | $4.0K | 60¢ | 40¢ |
| 15 | 360-379 | 50.0% | $135 | 50¢ | 50¢ |
| 16 | 380-399 | 50.0% | $10 | 50¢ | 50¢ |
| 17 | 420-439 | 45.0% | $5.5K | 45¢ | 55¢ |
| 18 | 400-419 | 40.0% | $10 | 40¢ | 60¢ |
| 19 | 500+ | 15.0% | $7.5K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 20 | <20 | 5.0% | $9.3K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 21 | 20-39 | 5.0% | $9.2K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 22 | 40-59 | 5.0% | $9.2K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 23 | 60-79 | 5.0% | $9.3K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 24 | 440-459 | 5.0% | $8.9K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 25 | 460-479 | 5.0% | $8.9K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 26 | 480-499 | 5.0% | $8.9K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 9 12:00 PM ET to October 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Oct 6, 2026
- 01:49 PMAZazimutp$184.00
Bought 800 Yes for Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? at 0.23
- 01:14 PMLZLZABACUS$3.00
Sold 20 Yes for Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? at 0.15
- 01:14 PMLZLZABACUS$3.60
Sold 60 Yes for Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? at 0.06
- 01:11 PMCHChunkyMonky$0.00
Bought 1000 Yes for Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? at 0
- 01:11 PMCHChunkyMonky$0.00
Bought 3400 Yes for Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? at 0
- 01:10 PMCHChunkyMonky$0.00
Bought 3400 Yes for Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? at 0
- 01:10 PMCHChunkyMonky$0.00
Bought 3400 Yes for Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? at 0
- 12:28 PMAPapostadorTurco$5.00
Bought 21.739131 Yes for Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? at 0.23
- 11:26 AM0X0x7bc3E4534D5320CB6056762962A8dFa831abf868-1773057330930$2.00
Bought 8.695653 Yes for Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? at 0.23
- 11:26 AM0X0x7bc3E4534D5320CB6056762962A8dFa831abf868-1773057330930$2.00
Bought 8.695653 Yes for Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? at 0.23
- 11:13 AMBOBoss7$5,000.00
Bought 5000 No for Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? at 1
- 10:50 AM0X0x75003de792a09a4D0345913BaF9C63d08Faa567f-1763836802268$0.00
Bought 9220 Yes for Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? at 0
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，180-199 以 2,250% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 200-219（2,250%），以及 220-239（1,700%）。该市场总成交量已达 $97.8K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。