Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs

$6.3M Vol
2026年10月12日
Active
概率趋势
Team Yandex 62.0%
Team Spirit 38.0%

核心摘要

根据「Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前,O/U 3.5 Games 以压倒性的 9,995% 获胜概率主导市场;Game 3 Winner 以 8,300% 位居第二,Match Winner 以 7,350% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $6.3M,反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:

🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者

  • O/U 3.5 Games (9,995%):O/U 3.5 Games 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,995¢,显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $18.1K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者

  • Game 3 Winner (8,300%):作为最可行的替代选项,Game 3 Winner 保持着 8,300% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 8,300¢。
  • Match Winner (7,350%):以 7,350% 的概率位列第三,市场对 Match Winner 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)

在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:

  • 替代选项:包括 Game 4 Winner (6,050%)、First Blood in Game 2? (5,100%),以及 Ends in Daytime (5,000%)。
  • 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 Any Player Ultra Kill 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes(成本)买入 No(成本)
1O/U 3.5 Games9995.0%$18.1K9995¢-9895¢
2Game 3 Winner8300.0%$1.4M8300¢-8200¢
3Match Winner7350.0%$1.5M7350¢-7250¢
4Game 4 Winner6050.0%$2.8K6050¢-5950¢
5First Blood in Game 2?5100.0%—5100¢-5000¢
6Ends in Daytime5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
7Any Player Ultra Kill5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
8Any Player Rampage5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
9Ends in Daytime5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
10Ends in Daytime5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
11Both Teams Beat Roshan5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
12Both Teams Destroy Barracks5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
13Any Player Ultra Kill5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
14Any Player Rampage5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
15First Blood in Game 4?5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
16Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 4?5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
17Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 4?5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
18Both Teams Beat Roshan4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
19Both Teams Destroy Barracks4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
20Both Teams Destroy Barracks4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
21Any Player Ultra Kill4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
22First Blood in Game 3?4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
23Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 3?4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
24Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 3?4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
25Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 3?4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
26Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 3?4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
27Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 3?4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
28Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 3?4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
29Any Player Rampage4900.0%—4900¢-4800¢
30Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)4850.0%$41.7K4850¢-4750¢
31Both Teams Beat Roshan4850.0%—4850¢-4750¢
32O/U 4.5 Games4150.0%$1.4K4150¢-4050¢
33Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Yandex (+1.5)2200.0%$5892200¢-2100¢
34Game Handicap: TY (-2.5) vs Team Spirit (+2.5)5.0%$2.6K5¢95¢
35Game Handicap: TS (-2.5) vs Team Yandex (+2.5)5.0%$6485¢95¢

裁决规则

This market refers to the Dota 2 Grand Final match between Team Yandex and Team Spirit in the BLAST Slam Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET.

This market will resolve to "Team Yandex" if Team Yandex win the match against Team Spirit.

This market will resolve to "Team Spirit" if Team Spirit win the match against Team Yandex.

If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 25, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 11, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.

If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

常见问题

当前市场对「Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs」的共识是什么?

截至最新更新,O/U 3.5 Games 以 9,995% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 Game 3 Winner(8,300%),以及 Match Winner(7,350%)。该市场总成交量已达 $6.3M,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

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