Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?

根据「Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，October 31, 2026 以压倒性的 4,700% 获胜概率主导市场；September 30, 2026 以 700% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $2K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• October 31, 2026 (4,700%)：October 31, 2026 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 4,700¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $12 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• September 30, 2026 (700%)：作为最可行的替代选项，September 30, 2026 保持着 700% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 700¢。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.

If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.