
USC vs. Penn State
核心摘要
根据「USC vs. Penn State」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前,O/U 37.5 以压倒性的 9,860% 获胜概率主导市场;O/U 43.5 以 9,830% 位居第二,O/U 47.5 以 9,250% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $586.8K,反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:
🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者
- O/U 37.5 (9,860%):O/U 37.5 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,860¢,显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $28 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者
- O/U 43.5 (9,830%):作为最可行的替代选项,O/U 43.5 保持着 9,830% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 9,830¢。
- O/U 47.5 (9,250%):以 9,250% 的概率位列第三,市场对 O/U 47.5 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)
在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:
- 替代选项:包括 O/U 49.5 (9,150%)、USC O/U 20.5 (9,150%),以及 USC O/U 23.5 (8,900%)。
- 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 O/U 51.5 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes(成本) | 买入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O/U 37.5 | 9860.0% | $28 | 9860¢ | -9760¢ |
| 2 | O/U 43.5 | 9830.0% | — | 9830¢ | -9730¢ |
| 3 | O/U 47.5 | 9250.0% | — | 9250¢ | -9150¢ |
| 4 | O/U 49.5 | 9150.0% | $406 | 9150¢ | -9050¢ |
| 5 | USC O/U 20.5 | 9150.0% | — | 9150¢ | -9050¢ |
| 6 | USC O/U 23.5 | 8900.0% | — | 8900¢ | -8800¢ |
| 7 | O/U 51.5 | 8750.0% | $851 | 8750¢ | -8650¢ |
| 8 | 4Q O/U 7.5 | 8550.0% | — | 8550¢ | -8450¢ |
| 9 | O/U 53.5 | 8500.0% | $2.5K | 8500¢ | -8400¢ |
| 10 | Penn State O/U 23.5 | 8400.0% | — | 8400¢ | -8300¢ |
| 11 | O/U 45.5 | 8000.0% | $13 | 8000¢ | -7900¢ |
| 12 | O/U 41.5 | 7795.0% | $5 | 7795¢ | -7695¢ |
| 13 | O/U 55.5 | 7400.0% | $44.1K | 7400¢ | -7300¢ |
| 14 | 4Q O/U 10.5 | 7200.0% | — | 7200¢ | -7100¢ |
| 15 | Spread -0.5 | 7100.0% | $699 | 7100¢ | -7000¢ |
| 16 | 3Q O/U 7.5 | 6900.0% | — | 6900¢ | -6800¢ |
| 17 | O/U 57.5 | 6650.0% | $8.7K | 6650¢ | -6550¢ |
| 18 | 2H O/U 30.5 | 6500.0% | $149 | 6500¢ | -6400¢ |
| 19 | O/U 63.5 | 6000.0% | $162 | 6000¢ | -5900¢ |
| 20 | O/U 59.5 | 5950.0% | $1.6K | 5950¢ | -5850¢ |
| 21 | 4Q O/U 13.5 | 5500.0% | — | 5500¢ | -5400¢ |
| 22 | O/U 35.5 | 5305.0% | — | 5305¢ | -5205¢ |
| 23 | 3Q O/U 16.5 | 5200.0% | — | 5200¢ | -5100¢ |
| 24 | USC vs. Penn State | 5150.0% | $457.9K | 5150¢ | -5050¢ |
| 25 | Penn State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 5100.0% | — | 5100¢ | -5000¢ |
| 26 | Penn State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 5100.0% | — | 5100¢ | -5000¢ |
| 27 | Penn State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 5100.0% | — | 5100¢ | -5000¢ |
| 28 | O/U 39.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 29 | O/U 61.5 | 5000.0% | $626 | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 30 | 2H O/U 21.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 31 | 2H O/U 24.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 32 | 2H O/U 33.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 33 | USC O/U 26.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 34 | USC O/U 29.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 35 | Penn State O/U 26.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 36 | Penn State O/U 29.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 37 | Penn State O/U 35.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 38 | USC 2H O/U 11.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 39 | USC 2H O/U 13.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 40 | USC 2H O/U 15.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 41 | Penn State 2H O/U 12.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 42 | Penn State 2H O/U 14.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 43 | Penn State 2H O/U 16.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 44 | Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 45 | Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 46 | Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 47 | Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 48 | Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 49 | Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 50 | Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 51 | Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 52 | Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 53 | Game Goes to Overtime | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 54 | Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 55 | USC vs. Penn State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 56 | USC vs. Penn State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 57 | Pick-Six Scored | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 58 | USC vs. Penn State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 59 | USC Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 60 | USC Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 61 | USC Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 62 | Penn State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 63 | Penn State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 64 | Penn State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 65 | USC Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 66 | USC Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 67 | USC Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 68 | Penn State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 69 | USC Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 70 | Penn State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 71 | Penn State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 72 | USC Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 73 | USC Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 74 | Penn State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 75 | USC Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 76 | Penn State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 77 | USC Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 78 | USC Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 79 | Penn State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 80 | Penn State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 81 | Penn State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 82 | USC 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 83 | USC 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 84 | Penn State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 85 | USC Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 86 | USC Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 87 | USC Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 88 | Penn State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 89 | Penn State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 90 | USC Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 91 | Penn State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 92 | USC Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 93 | USC Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 94 | Penn State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 95 | Penn State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 96 | USC Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 97 | USC Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 98 | USC Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 99 | Penn State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 100 | Penn State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 101 | USC vs. Penn State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 102 | USC vs. Penn State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 103 | USC vs. Penn State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 104 | 2H Spread -1.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 105 | 2H Spread -0.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 106 | 2H Spread -0.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 107 | 3Q Spread -0.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 108 | 3Q Spread -1.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 109 | 3Q Spread -5.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 110 | 4Q Spread -1.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 111 | 4Q Spread -0.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 112 | 4Q Spread -5.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 113 | 2H Moneyline | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 114 | USC O/U 3.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 115 | 1H Moneyline | 5000.0% | $471 | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 116 | 2Q Moneyline | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 117 | 3Q Moneyline | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 118 | 4Q Moneyline | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 119 | Spread -0.5 | 4950.0% | $699 | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 120 | USC O/U 32.5 | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 121 | Penn State O/U 32.5 | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 122 | 2H Spread -1.5 | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 123 | 3Q Spread -1.5 | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 124 | Penn State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 125 | Penn State O/U 3.5 | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 126 | Spread -1.5 | 4700.0% | $14.2K | 4700¢ | -4600¢ |
| 127 | Spread -1.5 | 4700.0% | $14.2K | 4700¢ | -4600¢ |
| 128 | Spread -2.5 | 4550.0% | $10.1K | 4550¢ | -4450¢ |
| 129 | 2H O/U 27.5 | 4450.0% | — | 4450¢ | -4350¢ |
| 130 | 3Q Spread -2.5 | 4450.0% | — | 4450¢ | -4350¢ |
| 131 | Spread -2.5 | 4350.0% | $10.1K | 4350¢ | -4250¢ |
| 132 | 4Q O/U 16.5 | 4250.0% | — | 4250¢ | -4150¢ |
| 133 | 4Q Spread -1.5 | 4000.0% | — | 4000¢ | -3900¢ |
| 134 | 3Q O/U 10.5 | 3750.0% | $10 | 3750¢ | -3650¢ |
| 135 | 2H Spread -3.5 | 3750.0% | — | 3750¢ | -3650¢ |
| 136 | Spread -3.5 | 3700.0% | $1.2K | 3700¢ | -3600¢ |
| 137 | O/U 69.5 | 3500.0% | — | 3500¢ | -3400¢ |
| 138 | 4Q Spread -2.5 | 3500.0% | — | 3500¢ | -3400¢ |
| 139 | 2H Spread -3.5 | 3350.0% | — | 3350¢ | -3250¢ |
| 140 | O/U 71.5 | 3250.0% | — | 3250¢ | -3150¢ |
| 141 | 3Q O/U 13.5 | 3150.0% | — | 3150¢ | -3050¢ |
| 142 | 4Q O/U 19.5 | 3150.0% | — | 3150¢ | -3050¢ |
| 143 | Spread -3.5 | 3050.0% | $1.2K | 3050¢ | -2950¢ |
| 144 | Spread -8.5 | 3050.0% | $5 | 3050¢ | -2950¢ |
| 145 | O/U 67.5 | 3050.0% | $1.0K | 3050¢ | -2950¢ |
| 146 | O/U 65.5 | 3000.0% | $12 | 3000¢ | -2900¢ |
| 147 | Spread -4.5 | 2900.0% | $1.2K | 2900¢ | -2800¢ |
| 148 | Spread -5.5 | 2750.0% | $862 | 2750¢ | -2650¢ |
| 149 | Spread -4.5 | 2650.0% | $1.2K | 2650¢ | -2550¢ |
| 150 | Spread -5.5 | 2550.0% | $862 | 2550¢ | -2450¢ |
| 151 | Spread -6.5 | 2450.0% | $4.4K | 2450¢ | -2350¢ |
| 152 | 4Q Spread -3.5 | 2400.0% | — | 2400¢ | -2300¢ |
| 153 | Spread -6.5 | 2300.0% | $4.4K | 2300¢ | -2200¢ |
| 154 | 3Q Spread -3.5 | 2150.0% | — | 2150¢ | -2050¢ |
| 155 | O/U 75.5 | 1950.0% | — | 1950¢ | -1850¢ |
| 156 | Spread -7.5 | 1700.0% | $10 | 1700¢ | -1600¢ |
| 157 | Spread -7.5 | 1700.0% | $10 | 1700¢ | -1600¢ |
| 158 | 3Q O/U 19.5 | 1600.0% | — | 1600¢ | -1500¢ |
| 159 | O/U 73.5 | 1550.0% | — | 1550¢ | -1450¢ |
| 160 | Spread -8.5 | 1300.0% | $5 | 1300¢ | -1200¢ |
| 161 | Spread -10.5 | 1200.0% | $1.4K | 1200¢ | -1100¢ |
| 162 | Spread -10.5 | 1000.0% | $1.4K | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 163 | Spread -20.5 | 950.0% | $49 | 950¢ | -850¢ |
| 164 | Spread -13.5 | 900.0% | $9 | 900¢ | -800¢ |
| 165 | Spread -13.5 | 750.0% | $9 | 750¢ | -650¢ |
| 166 | Spread -14.5 | 700.0% | $75 | 700¢ | -600¢ |
| 167 | Spread -14.5 | 650.0% | $75 | 650¢ | -550¢ |
| 168 | Spread -17.5 | 595.0% | $895 | 595¢ | -495¢ |
| 169 | Spread -17.5 | 590.0% | $895 | 590¢ | -490¢ |
| 170 | Spread -16.5 | 550.0% | — | 550¢ | -450¢ |
| 171 | Spread -16.5 | 495.0% | — | 495¢ | -395¢ |
| 172 | Spread -20.5 | 470.0% | $49 | 470¢ | -370¢ |
裁决规则
In the upcoming college football game between USC and Penn State, scheduled for October 10 at 7:30PM ET:
This market will resolve to "USC" if USC win the game.
This market will resolve to "Penn State" if Penn State win the game.
Overtime is included if played.
If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Oct 10, 2026
- 11:26 PMWIWilliMekkit$2.65
Bought 5 USC for USC vs. Penn State: 1H Moneyline at 0.53
- 11:26 PM——$224.68
Bought 423.924529 USC for USC vs. Penn State: 1H Moneyline at 0.53
- 11:26 PM——$21.66
Bought 41.65 USC for USC vs. Penn State: 1H Moneyline at 0.52
- 11:25 PMFOForecastication2$4.60
Bought 10 USC for 1H Spread: USC (-1.5) at 0.46
- 10:05 PMGCgczap3344$4.00
Bought 7.54717 Under for USC vs. Penn State: O/U 55.5 at 0.53
- 10:02 PMPEPEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN$1,422.11
Bought 2734.83 Under for USC vs. Penn State: O/U 55.5 at 0.52
- 10:02 PMMImircnda$243.05
Bought 467.4 USC for Spread: Penn State (-1.5) at 0.52
- 10:00 PMEFEfb1$20.00
Bought 40 USC for USC vs. Penn State at 0.5
- 09:59 PMSCscscsa$2.60
Bought 5 Under for USC vs. Penn State: O/U 55.5 at 0.52
- 09:59 PMMAMasterSparks69$8.49
Bought 16.326922 Under for USC vs. Penn State: O/U 55.5 at 0.52
- 09:59 PM0X0x0abdea0ECe95A$4.32
Bought 8.307693 Under for USC vs. Penn State: O/U 55.5 at 0.52
- 09:59 PMNInigiri99$512.20
Bought 985 Under for USC vs. Penn State: O/U 55.5 at 0.52
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「USC vs. Penn State」的共识是什么?
截至最新更新,O/U 37.5 以 9,860% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 O/U 43.5(9,830%),以及 O/U 47.5(9,250%)。该市场总成交量已达 $586.8K,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
