
Toledo vs. Ball State
核心摘要
根据「Toledo vs. Ball State」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前,O/U 43.5 以压倒性的 9,995% 获胜概率主导市场;O/U 51.5 以 9,995% 位居第二,O/U 55.5 以 9,995% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $296.3K,反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:
🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者
- O/U 43.5 (9,995%):O/U 43.5 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,995¢,显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $396 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者
- O/U 51.5 (9,995%):作为最可行的替代选项,O/U 51.5 保持着 9,995% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 9,995¢。
- O/U 55.5 (9,995%):以 9,995% 的概率位列第三,市场对 O/U 55.5 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)
在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:
- 替代选项:包括 Spread -11.5 (9,995%)、Spread -9.5 (9,995%),以及 Toledo O/U 32.5 (9,955%)。
- 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 Spread -12.5 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes(成本) | 买入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O/U 43.5 | 9995.0% | $396 | 9995¢ | -9895¢ |
| 2 | O/U 51.5 | 9995.0% | $72.3K | 9995¢ | -9895¢ |
| 3 | O/U 55.5 | 9995.0% | $904 | 9995¢ | -9895¢ |
| 4 | Spread -11.5 | 9995.0% | $1.7K | 9995¢ | -9895¢ |
| 5 | Spread -9.5 | 9995.0% | $685 | 9995¢ | -9895¢ |
| 6 | Toledo O/U 32.5 | 9955.0% | $15 | 9955¢ | -9855¢ |
| 7 | Spread -12.5 | 9955.0% | — | 9955¢ | -9855¢ |
| 8 | Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 9 | Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 10 | Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 11 | Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 12 | Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 13 | Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 14 | Ball State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 15 | Ball State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 16 | Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 17 | Ball State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 18 | Ball State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 19 | Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 20 | Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 21 | Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 22 | Ball State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 23 | Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 24 | Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 25 | Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 26 | Ball State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 27 | Toledo 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 28 | 2H Spread -9.5 | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 29 | 2H Spread -6.5 | 9000.0% | $5 | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 30 | 4Q Spread -7.5 | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 31 | 4Q Spread -5.5 | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 32 | 4Q Spread -4.5 | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 33 | 4Q Spread -2.5 | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 34 | 4Q Spread -0.5 | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 35 | 2H Moneyline | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 36 | Ball State O/U 2.5 | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 37 | 4Q Moneyline | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 38 | Ball State O/U 1.5 | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 39 | Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 5250.0% | — | 5250¢ | -5150¢ |
| 40 | Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 5250.0% | — | 5250¢ | -5150¢ |
| 41 | Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 5250.0% | — | 5250¢ | -5150¢ |
| 42 | Ball State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 5250.0% | — | 5250¢ | -5150¢ |
| 43 | Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 5250.0% | — | 5250¢ | -5150¢ |
| 44 | Ball State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 5250.0% | — | 5250¢ | -5150¢ |
| 45 | Ball State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 5250.0% | — | 5250¢ | -5150¢ |
| 46 | Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 5250.0% | — | 5250¢ | -5150¢ |
| 47 | Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 5250.0% | — | 5250¢ | -5150¢ |
| 48 | Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 5250.0% | — | 5250¢ | -5150¢ |
| 49 | Ball State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 50 | Toledo vs. Ball State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 51 | 3Q Moneyline | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 52 | Ball State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 4750.0% | — | 4750¢ | -4650¢ |
| 53 | Ball State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 4750.0% | — | 4750¢ | -4650¢ |
| 54 | Ball State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 4750.0% | — | 4750¢ | -4650¢ |
| 55 | Ball State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 4750.0% | — | 4750¢ | -4650¢ |
| 56 | Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 4750.0% | — | 4750¢ | -4650¢ |
| 57 | Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 4750.0% | — | 4750¢ | -4650¢ |
| 58 | Ball State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 4750.0% | — | 4750¢ | -4650¢ |
| 59 | Ball State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 4750.0% | — | 4750¢ | -4650¢ |
| 60 | Ball State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 4750.0% | — | 4750¢ | -4650¢ |
| 61 | Ball State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 4750.0% | — | 4750¢ | -4650¢ |
| 62 | Toledo vs. Ball State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 4700.0% | — | 4700¢ | -4600¢ |
| 63 | Toledo vs. Ball State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 4700.0% | — | 4700¢ | -4600¢ |
| 64 | Toledo 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 2500.0% | — | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 65 | Ball State 2H O/U 14.5 | 1000.0% | — | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 66 | Ball State 2H O/U 16.5 | 1000.0% | — | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 67 | Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 1000.0% | — | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 68 | Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 1000.0% | — | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 69 | Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 1000.0% | — | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 70 | Pick-Six Scored | 1000.0% | — | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 71 | Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 1000.0% | — | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 72 | Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 1000.0% | — | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 73 | Ball State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 1000.0% | — | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 74 | Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 1000.0% | — | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 75 | Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 1000.0% | — | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 76 | Ball State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 1000.0% | — | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 77 | Ball State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 1000.0% | — | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 78 | Ball State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 1000.0% | — | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 79 | Ball State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 1000.0% | — | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 80 | 2H Spread -13.5 | 1000.0% | $5 | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 81 | 2H Spread -10.5 | 1000.0% | $5 | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 82 | Toledo O/U 4.5 | 1000.0% | — | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 83 | Spread -5.5 | 45.0% | — | 45¢ | 55¢ |
| 84 | Spread -6.5 | 45.0% | — | 45¢ | 55¢ |
| 85 | Ball State O/U 26.5 | 45.0% | $5 | 45¢ | 55¢ |
| 86 | Ball State O/U 29.5 | 45.0% | $55 | 45¢ | 55¢ |
| 87 | Spread -40.5 | 45.0% | — | 45¢ | 55¢ |
| 88 | Spread -37.5 | 45.0% | — | 45¢ | 55¢ |
| 89 | Spread -34.5 | 45.0% | — | 45¢ | 55¢ |
| 90 | Spread -28.5 | 45.0% | — | 45¢ | 55¢ |
| 91 | Spread -26.5 | 45.0% | — | 45¢ | 55¢ |
| 92 | Spread -25.5 | 45.0% | — | 45¢ | 55¢ |
| 93 | Spread -24.5 | 45.0% | — | 45¢ | 55¢ |
| 94 | Spread -15.5 | 45.0% | — | 45¢ | 55¢ |
| 95 | Spread -33.5 | 35.0% | — | 35¢ | 65¢ |
| 96 | Spread -30.5 | 5.0% | $170 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 97 | Spread -23.5 | 5.0% | $103 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 98 | Spread -21.5 | 5.0% | $39.2K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 99 | Spread -19.5 | 5.0% | $100 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 100 | Spread -18.5 | 5.0% | $82 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
裁决规则
In the upcoming college football game between Toledo and Ball State, scheduled for October 3 at 2:00PM ET:
This market will resolve to "Toledo" if Toledo win the game.
This market will resolve to "Ball State" if Ball State win the game.
Overtime is included if played.
If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Oct 3, 2026
- 09:39 PM0X0x5C4e14D94daeb0df04f0be9718ee1e61202O184$10.38
Sold 10.38 Toledo for Toledo vs. Ball State at 1
- 09:33 PM0X0x1256E1f$410.72
Sold 410.72 Toledo for Spread: Toledo (-14.5) at 1
- 09:33 PM0X0x1256E1f$1,042.00
Sold 1042 Toledo for Spread: Toledo (-13.5) at 1
- 09:32 PMJUJustWins12$11.00
Sold 11 Toledo for Spread: Toledo (-13.5) at 1
- 09:28 PMQWqwe258$9.00
Bought 9 Ball State for Spread: Toledo (-16.5) at 1
- 09:28 PMDAdachshundowner$6.99
Bought 6.99 Ball State for Spread: Toledo (-16.5) at 1
- 09:28 PMHYHypnoman007$46.29
Sold 46.29 Toledo for Spread: Toledo (-14.5) at 1
- 09:27 PMJOJordyBOBO$5.01
Bought 5.005006 Ball State for Spread: Toledo (-16.5) at 1
- 09:27 PMSHshugafa$50.00
Bought 50 Under for Ball State Team Total: O/U 35.5 at 1
- 09:27 PMSHshugafa$50.00
Bought 50 Under for Ball State Team Total: O/U 32.5 at 1
- 09:27 PMSHshugafa$50.00
Bought 50 Under for Ball State Team Total: O/U 29.5 at 1
- 09:27 PMSHshugafa$5.00
Bought 5 Toledo for Spread: Toledo (-7.5) at 1
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「Toledo vs. Ball State」的共识是什么?
截至最新更新,O/U 43.5 以 9,995% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 O/U 51.5(9,995%),以及 O/U 55.5(9,995%)。该市场总成交量已达 $296.3K,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
