Marshall vs. Penn State

$52.7K Vol
2026年9月5日
Active
概率趋势
Penn State 99.6%
Marshall 0.4%

核心摘要

根据「Marshall vs. Penn State」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Spread -13.5 以压倒性的 9,100% 获胜概率主导市场；Spread -16.5 以 8,750% 位居第二，Spread -7.5 以 8,550% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $52.7K，反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

  • Spread -13.5 (9,100%)：Spread -13.5 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,100¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $7 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

  • Spread -16.5 (8,750%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Spread -16.5 保持着 8,750% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 8,750¢。
  • Spread -7.5 (8,550%)：以 8,550% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Spread -7.5 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

  • 替代选项：包括 Spread -17.5 (8,500%)、Spread -21.5 (8,500%)，以及 Spread -4.5 (8,400%)。
  • 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Spread -5.5 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes（成本）买入 No（成本）
1Spread -13.59100.0%$79100¢-9000¢
2Spread -16.58750.0%—8750¢-8650¢
3Spread -7.58550.0%—8550¢-8450¢
4Spread -17.58500.0%—8500¢-8400¢
5Spread -21.58500.0%$2728500¢-8400¢
6Spread -4.58400.0%—8400¢-8300¢
7Spread -5.58400.0%$328400¢-8300¢
8Spread -23.58250.0%$28.2K8250¢-8150¢
9Spread: Penn State (-24.5)7850.0%$1927850¢-7750¢
10Spread -20.57350.0%$437350¢-7250¢
11Spread -27.57050.0%$507050¢-6950¢
12O/U 37.56700.0%—6700¢-6600¢
13O/U 43.55550.0%$885550¢-5450¢
14Spread -6.55350.0%—5350¢-5250¢
15Spread -3.55300.0%—5300¢-5200¢
16Spread -14.55250.0%—5250¢-5150¢
17Spread -10.55200.0%—5200¢-5100¢
181H Spread -13.55050.0%$505050¢-4950¢
191H Spread -14.55050.0%$575050¢-4950¢
20O/U 53.55000.0%$4.3K5000¢-4900¢
21Spread -0.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
22Spread -1.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
23Spread -2.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
24Spread -8.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
25Spread -31.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
26Spread -34.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
27O/U 33.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
28O/U 35.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
29O/U 39.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
30O/U 41.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
31O/U 45.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
32O/U 47.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
33O/U 51.55000.0%$1.6K5000¢-4900¢
34O/U 59.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
35O/U 63.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
36O/U 65.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
37O/U 69.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
38O/U 71.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
392H Moneyline5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
401H Spread -11.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
411H Spread -12.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
421H Spread -15.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
432Q Spread -5.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
442Q Spread -6.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
452Q Spread -7.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
462Q Spread -8.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
472Q Spread -9.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
482Q Moneyline5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
493Q Spread -4.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
503Q Spread -5.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
513Q Spread -6.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
523Q Spread -7.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
533Q Spread -8.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
543Q Moneyline5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
554Q Moneyline5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
56Penn State O/U 32.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
57Penn State O/U 35.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
58Penn State O/U 38.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
59Penn State O/U 41.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
60Penn State O/U 44.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
61Marshall O/U 7.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
62Marshall O/U 10.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
63Marshall O/U 13.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
64Marshall O/U 16.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
65Marshall O/U 19.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
66Penn State 1H O/U 18.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
67Penn State 1H O/U 20.55000.0%$65000¢-4900¢
68Penn State 1H O/U 22.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
692H Spread -8.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
702H Spread -11.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
71Marshall O/U 8.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
72Marshall O/U 11.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
73Marshall O/U 14.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
74Marshall O/U 17.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
75Marshall O/U 20.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
76Marshall 1H O/U 4.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
77Marshall 1H O/U 6.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
78Marshall 1H O/U 8.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
79Marshall 2H O/U 4.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
80Marshall 2H O/U 6.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
81Marshall 2H O/U 8.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
82Penn State 2H O/U 14.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
83Penn State 2H O/U 16.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
84Penn State 2H O/U 18.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
85Marshall 1H O/U 5.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
86Marshall 1H O/U 7.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
87Marshall 1H O/U 9.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
882H Spread -12.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
892H Spread -13.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
90Penn State 2H O/U 15.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
91Penn State 2H O/U 17.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
92Penn State 2H O/U 19.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
93Penn State O/U 31.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
94Penn State O/U 34.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
95Penn State O/U 37.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
96Penn State O/U 40.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
97Penn State O/U 43.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
984Q Spread -3.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
994Q Spread -4.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
1004Q Spread -5.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
1014Q Spread -6.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
1024Q Spread -7.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
1033Q Spread -3.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
104Penn State O/U 4.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
105Marshall O/U 1.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
106Carson Hansen: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
107Rocco Becht: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
108James Peoples: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
109Quinton Martin Jr.: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
110Benjamin Brahmer: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
111Carlos Del Rio-Wilson: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
112Joshon Barbie: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
113Chase Sowell: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
114Brett Eskildsen: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
115Adrian Norton: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
116Andrew Rappleyea: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
117TJ Lester: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
118Zay Robinson: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
119Koby Howard: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
120Toby Payne: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
121De'Andre Tamarez: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
122Keith Jones: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
123Christian Hamilton: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
124Peter Gonzalez: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
125Chris Culliver: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
126Owen Sweeney: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
1274Q Spread -2.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
128Marshall 2H O/U 5.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
129Marshall 2H O/U 7.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
130Marshall 2H O/U 9.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
1311H Moneyline4950.0%$874950¢-4850¢
1322H Spread -7.54950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
1332H Spread -6.54950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
1342H Spread -10.54850.0%—4850¢-4750¢
135O/U 49.54400.0%$1564400¢-4300¢
1362H Spread -9.54300.0%—4300¢-4200¢
137O/U 52.53650.0%$12.5K3650¢-3550¢
138O/U 54.52700.0%$2322700¢-2600¢
139O/U 55.52350.0%$252350¢-2250¢
140O/U 57.52350.0%—2350¢-2250¢
141O/U 61.52100.0%—2100¢-2000¢
142O/U 73.51000.0%—1000¢-900¢
143O/U 67.5900.0%—900¢-800¢
144Marshall vs. Penn State50.0%$7.5K50¢50¢

裁决规则

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 5 at 3:30PM ET:

If Marshall wins, the market will resolve to "Marshall".

If Penn State wins, the market will resolve to "Penn State".

If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.

If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Sep 5, 2026

  • 08:57 PM
    0X0x92F59e08060C00C9b2Dde0098D272f66C34C52A2-1786873013481
    $5.02

    Bought 5.91 Penn State for Spread: Penn State (-23.5) at 0.85

  • 08:57 PM
    URUranusProbe
    $4.30

    Bought 5.05882 Penn State for Spread: Penn State (-23.5) at 0.85

  • 08:57 PM
    RNRN1
    $841.50

    Bought 990 Penn State for Spread: Penn State (-23.5) at 0.85

  • 08:57 PM
    DIdips.
    $30.60

    Bought 36 Penn State for Spread: Penn State (-23.5) at 0.85

  • 08:57 PM
    DIdips.
    $22.95

    Bought 27 Penn State for Spread: Penn State (-23.5) at 0.85

  • 08:56 PM
    HOHomeRunHazard
    $37.71

    Bought 87.69 Under for Marshall vs. Penn State: O/U 43.5 at 0.43

  • 08:49 PM
    1W1winstreak1
    $20.00

    Bought 50 Over for Marshall vs. Penn State: O/U 49.5 at 0.4

  • 08:49 PM
    ——
    $1.06

    Bought 2.65 Over for Marshall vs. Penn State: O/U 49.5 at 0.4

  • 08:49 PM
    0X0x92F59e08060C00C9b2Dde0098D272f66C34C52A2-1786873013481
    $1.04

    Bought 2.6 Over for Marshall vs. Penn State: O/U 49.5 at 0.4

  • 08:40 PM
    ——
    $5.00

    Bought 5.376343 Penn State for Spread: Penn State (-23.5) at 0.93

  • 08:37 PM
    COcosmicsteaks
    $5.10

    Bought 6 Penn State for Spread: Penn State (-23.5) at 0.85

  • 08:37 PM
    DIdips.
    $8.50

    Bought 10 Penn State for Spread: Penn State (-23.5) at 0.85

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

WR1
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r
事件盈亏
+$144.07
成交量
$16,745.10
持仓数
Marshall
HO2
HomeRunHazard
事件盈亏
+$168.34
成交量
$15,967.98
持仓数
OverOverMarshall+4
FL3
Flipadelphia
事件盈亏
-$133.70
成交量
$10,000.00
持仓数
Penn State
MA4
matanovik
事件盈亏
+$342.98
成交量
$6,377.00
持仓数
UnderUnder
HO5
Hoch
事件盈亏
+$239.48
成交量
$5,263.16
持仓数
Penn State
HE6
0xheavy888
事件盈亏
-$348.85
成交量
$4,576.98
持仓数
UnderOver
497
0x49F206
事件盈亏
-$25.07
成交量
$3,843.39
持仓数
Penn State
NI8
nigiri99
事件盈亏
-$0.20
成交量
$2,819.14
持仓数
MarshallMarshall

常见问题

当前市场对「Marshall vs. Penn State」的共识是什么？

截至最新更新，Spread -13.5 以 9,100% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Spread -16.5（8,750%），以及 Spread -7.5（8,550%）。该市场总成交量已达 $52.7K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

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