Liberty vs. James Madison

$62.4K Vol
2026年9月5日
Active
概率趋势
James Madison 67.5%
Liberty 32.5%

核心摘要

根据「Liberty vs. James Madison」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，O/U 35.5 以压倒性的 7,800% 获胜概率主导市场；Spread -1.5 以 7,700% 位居第二，Spread -2.5 以 7,450% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $62.4K，反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

  • O/U 35.5 (7,800%)：O/U 35.5 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 7,800¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

  • Spread -1.5 (7,700%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Spread -1.5 保持着 7,700% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 7,700¢。
  • Spread -2.5 (7,450%)：以 7,450% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Spread -2.5 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

  • 替代选项：包括 1H Spread -2.5 (7,050%)、Spread -3.5 (6,900%)，以及 1H Spread -3.5 (6,400%)。
  • 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Spread: James Madison (-6.5) 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes（成本）买入 No（成本）
1O/U 35.57800.0%—7800¢-7700¢
2Spread -1.57700.0%$507700¢-7600¢
3Spread -2.57450.0%$507450¢-7350¢
41H Spread -2.57050.0%—7050¢-6950¢
5Spread -3.56900.0%$1.2K6900¢-6800¢
61H Spread -3.56400.0%$506400¢-6300¢
7Spread: James Madison (-6.5)6200.0%$21.8K6200¢-6100¢
81H Spread -4.56150.0%—6150¢-6050¢
9Liberty O/U 16.56050.0%—6050¢-5950¢
10Spread -4.56000.0%$8286000¢-5900¢
11O/U 41.55550.0%$25550¢-5450¢
12Spread -7.55450.0%$6245450¢-5350¢
13Spread -8.55200.0%$405200¢-5100¢
141H Moneyline5100.0%$6195100¢-5000¢
152Q Spread -4.55100.0%$2315100¢-5000¢
16O/U 43.55050.0%—5050¢-4950¢
17Spread -0.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
18Spread -34.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
19O/U 31.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
20O/U 33.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
21O/U 37.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
22O/U 39.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
23O/U 49.55000.0%$25000¢-4900¢
24O/U 57.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
25O/U 63.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
26O/U 67.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
27O/U 69.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
282H Moneyline5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
291H Spread -1.55000.0%$2145000¢-4900¢
301H Spread -5.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
312Q Spread -0.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
322Q Spread -1.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
332Q Spread -2.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
342Q Spread -3.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
352Q Moneyline5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
363Q Spread -0.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
373Q Spread -1.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
383Q Spread -2.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
393Q Spread -3.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
403Q Moneyline5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
414Q Spread -0.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
424Q Spread -1.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
434Q Spread -2.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
444Q Spread -3.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
454Q Moneyline5000.0%$10.0K5000¢-4900¢
46James Madison O/U 22.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
47James Madison O/U 25.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
48James Madison O/U 31.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
492H Spread -0.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
502H Spread -1.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
512H Spread -2.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
522H Spread -3.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
532H Spread -4.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
54Liberty O/U 15.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
55Liberty O/U 18.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
56Liberty O/U 24.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
57Liberty 1H O/U 8.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
58Liberty 1H O/U 10.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
59Liberty 1H O/U 12.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
60James Madison 1H O/U 12.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
61James Madison 1H O/U 14.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
62James Madison 1H O/U 16.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
63Liberty 2H O/U 8.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
64Liberty 2H O/U 10.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
65Liberty 2H O/U 12.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
66James Madison 2H O/U 11.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
67James Madison 2H O/U 13.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
68James Madison 2H O/U 15.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
69James Madison O/U 21.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
70James Madison O/U 24.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
71James Madison O/U 33.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
72Liberty O/U 22.55000.0%$1175000¢-4900¢
73Liberty O/U 25.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
74Liberty O/U 28.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
75James Madison O/U 3.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
76Liberty O/U 2.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
77George Pettaway: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
78Seth Cromwell: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
79Nick Herman: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
80Kanye Udoh: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
81Camden Coleman: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
82Deshawn Purdie: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
83Kam Davis: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
84Peyton Jones: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
85Jeremiah Harrison: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
86Corey Scott: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
87Jamari Person: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
88Rashawn Cunningham: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
89Makai Jackson: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
90Cole Keller: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
91Jaylon Coleman: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
92Michael Scott: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
93Braeden Wisloski: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
94Jon Monteiro: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
95Lee Johnson: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
96Za'Ron Collins: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
97Spread -31.54995.0%$64995¢-4895¢
98James Madison O/U 27.54800.0%—4800¢-4700¢
99Spread -10.54600.0%$6734600¢-4500¢
100Liberty O/U 19.54550.0%—4550¢-4450¢
101James Madison O/U 28.54500.0%$3564500¢-4400¢
102O/U 45.54300.0%$24300¢-4200¢
103O/U 61.54300.0%—4300¢-4200¢
104Spread -5.54250.0%$3.4K4250¢-4150¢
105O/U 47.53850.0%$3163850¢-3750¢
106Liberty O/U 21.53850.0%—3850¢-3750¢
107Spread -13.53750.0%$1793750¢-3650¢
108James Madison O/U 30.53400.0%—3400¢-3300¢
109Spread -14.53250.0%$503250¢-3150¢
110O/U 50.53100.0%$1.1K3100¢-3000¢
111Spread -16.52850.0%$502850¢-2750¢
112O/U 51.52550.0%$7.5K2550¢-2450¢
113O/U 53.52500.0%—2500¢-2400¢
114James Madison O/U 34.52450.0%—2450¢-2350¢
115O/U 52.52400.0%$4422400¢-2300¢
116Spread -17.52400.0%—2400¢-2300¢
117Liberty O/U 27.52150.0%—2150¢-2050¢
118Liberty vs. James Madison2050.0%$20.5K2050¢-1950¢
119O/U 55.51900.0%—1900¢-1800¢
120Spread -20.51800.0%$771800¢-1700¢
121Spread -21.51400.0%—1400¢-1300¢
122O/U 59.51050.0%$501050¢-950¢
123Spread -24.5950.0%—950¢-850¢
124Spread -27.5900.0%—900¢-800¢
125O/U 65.5500.0%—500¢-400¢
126O/U 71.5400.0%—400¢-300¢

裁决规则

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 5 at 12:00PM ET:

If Liberty wins, the market will resolve to "Liberty".

If James Madison wins, the market will resolve to "James Madison".

If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.

If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Sep 5, 2026

  • 08:02 AM
    JGjgamondi
    $1.11

    Bought 2.3125 James Madison for Spread: James Madison (-6.5) at 0.48

  • 08:01 AM
    LUluismipfa
    $2.13

    Bought 4.4375 James Madison for Spread: James Madison (-6.5) at 0.48

  • 08:00 AM
    0X0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186
    $2,076.63

    Bought 3993.519229 Liberty for Spread: James Madison (-6.5) at 0.52

  • 07:00 AM
    MOmooseborzoi
    $2.41

    Bought 5.03 James Madison for Spread: James Madison (-6.5) at 0.48

  • 06:47 AM
    MOmooseborzoi
    $14.02

    Bought 29.21 Over for James Madison Team Total: O/U 28.5 at 0.48

  • 06:46 AM
    NInigiri99
    $15.60

    Bought 26 James Madison for 1H Spread: James Madison (-1.5) at 0.6

  • 06:28 AM
    EREricMing1 - 34457
    $49.00

    Bought 73.134327 James Madison for Liberty vs. James Madison at 0.67

  • 06:28 AM
    NInigiri99
    $103.80

    Bought 173 James Madison for 1H Spread: James Madison (-1.5) at 0.6

  • 05:55 AM
    MOmooseborzoi
    $97.45

    Bought 187.4 Liberty for Spread: James Madison (-6.5) at 0.52

  • 05:52 AM
    MOmooseborzoi
    $19.38

    Bought 37.27 Liberty for Spread: James Madison (-6.5) at 0.52

  • 05:45 AM
    MOmooseborzoi
    $24.10

    Bought 46.34 Liberty for Spread: James Madison (-6.5) at 0.52

  • 05:31 AM
    NInigiri99
    $763.80

    Bought 1140 James Madison for Liberty vs. James Madison at 0.67

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

TA1
takeormake
事件盈亏
+$424.70
成交量
$55,814.88
持仓数
Liberty
FE2
ferrariChampions2026
事件盈亏
-$202.29
成交量
$40,108.39
持仓数
James Madison
JU3
JUSTINHERBERTMVP
事件盈亏
-$2,129.01
成交量
$17,323.99
持仓数
LibertyLiberty
RN4
RN1
事件盈亏
+$110.21
成交量
$14,650.10
持仓数
James MadisonJames Madison
HI5
hi774c
事件盈亏
-$1,516.32
成交量
$13,888.02
持仓数
James MadisonJames Madison
PA6
Painfulvoid
事件盈亏
+$1,485.17
成交量
$9,901.10
持仓数
Liberty
HO7
HomeRunHazard
事件盈亏
+$872.18
成交量
$8,164.44
持仓数
James MadisonJames MadisonLiberty+2
HE8
0xheavy888
事件盈亏
+$660.00
成交量
$5,999.98
持仓数
James Madison

常见问题

当前市场对「Liberty vs. James Madison」的共识是什么？

截至最新更新，O/U 35.5 以 7,800% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Spread -1.5（7,700%），以及 Spread -2.5（7,450%）。该市场总成交量已达 $62.4K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

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