Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7?

$37.7K Vol
2026年9月7日
Active
概率趋势
Down 51.5%
Up 48.5%

核心摘要

根据「Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Down 以压倒性的 5,150% 获胜概率主导市场；Up 以 4,850% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $37.7K，反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

  • Down (5,150%)：Down 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5,150¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

  • Up (4,850%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Up 保持着 4,850% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 4,850¢。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes（成本）买入 No（成本）
1Down5150.0%—5150¢-5050¢
2Up4850.0%—4850¢-4750¢

裁决规则

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 6 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 7 '26 12:00 ET candle.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 6 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 7 '26 12:00 ET candle.

If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Sep 6, 2026

  • 09:06 PM
    0X0x0ceB211bce08f16e9A124E7Eb0e03C5EbCFc48AC-1777478472380
    $1.00

    Bought 1.754384 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7? at 0.57

  • 09:05 PM
    INincrediblemachine
    $3.00

    Bought 5.17 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7? at 0.58

  • 09:05 PM
    KIkingofcoinflips
    $34.20

    Bought 60 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7? at 0.57

  • 09:02 PM
    COComTruise
    $11.40

    Bought 20 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7? at 0.57

  • 08:46 PM
    INincrediblemachine
    $4.00

    Bought 6.9 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7? at 0.58

  • 08:46 PM
    KIkingofcoinflips
    $466.72

    Bought 818.8 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7? at 0.57

  • 08:44 PM
    INincrediblemachine
    $3.93

    Bought 6.9 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7? at 0.57

  • 08:44 PM
    KIkingofcoinflips
    $459.20

    Bought 820 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7? at 0.56

  • 08:36 PM
    0X0xD222ac4160bE5850C7fA435E7131d9e7cd47fDB5-1766006684362
    $10.00

    Bought 22.727271 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7? at 0.44

  • 08:31 PM
    0X0xB676deA23d6d2aBF8d172Dd641227a8eD61E7Fb8-1775849821906
    $5.00

    Bought 11.363635 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7? at 0.44

  • 08:27 PM
    0X0xD222ac4160bE5850C7fA435E7131d9e7cd47fDB5-1766006684362
    $15.00

    Bought 34.090908 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7? at 0.44

  • 08:23 PM
    KIkingofcoinflips
    $2.41

    Bought 4.31 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7? at 0.56

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

KI1
kingofcoinflips
事件盈亏
+$29.29
成交量
$12,465.69
持仓数
Up
TR2
trulyalya1
事件盈亏
-$255.94
成交量
$2,725.85
持仓数
Down
AM3
AmericaFirst1
事件盈亏
-$119.57
成交量
$2,691.82
持仓数
Down
064
0x06dc…0452
事件盈亏
+$222.44
成交量
$2,348.95
持仓数
Up
NI5
Niseko
事件盈亏
+$100.00
成交量
$2,000.00
持仓数
Up
GO6
Goldismoney
事件盈亏
-$180.47
成交量
$1,883.96
持仓数
Down
CO7
ComTruise
事件盈亏
-$153.07
成交量
$1,862.54
持仓数
Down
BD8
0xbd3F…4159
事件盈亏
-$100.02
成交量
$1,604.69
持仓数
Down

常见问题

当前市场对「Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7?」的共识是什么？

截至最新更新，Down 以 5,150% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Up（4,850%）。该市场总成交量已达 $37.7K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

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