Bitcoin above ___ on September 11?
核心摘要
根据「Bitcoin above ___ on September 11?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，70,000 以压倒性的 9,940% 获胜概率主导市场；72,000 以 9,915% 位居第二，74,000 以 9,595% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $71.2K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- 70,000 (9,940%)：70,000 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,940¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $8.7K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- 72,000 (9,915%)：作为最可行的替代选项，72,000 保持着 9,915% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 9,915¢。
- 74,000 (9,595%)：以 9,595% 的概率位列第三，市场对 74,000 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）
在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：
- 替代选项：包括 76,000 (8,845%)、78,000 (6,250%)，以及 80,000 (3,150%)。
- 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 82,000 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 70,000 | 9940.0% | $8.7K | 9940¢ | -9840¢ |
| 2 | 72,000 | 9915.0% | $3.5K | 9915¢ | -9815¢ |
| 3 | 74,000 | 9595.0% | $6.3K | 9595¢ | -9495¢ |
| 4 | 76,000 | 8845.0% | $10.6K | 8845¢ | -8745¢ |
| 5 | 78,000 | 6250.0% | $1.3K | 6250¢ | -6150¢ |
| 6 | 80,000 | 3150.0% | $3.4K | 3150¢ | -3050¢ |
| 7 | 82,000 | 1050.0% | $6.7K | 1050¢ | -950¢ |
| 8 | 84,000 | 330.0% | $10.5K | 330¢ | -230¢ |
| 9 | 86,000 | 105.0% | $14.9K | 105¢ | -5¢ |
| 10 | 88,000 | 70.0% | $4.7K | 70¢ | 30¢ |
| 11 | 90,000 | 60.0% | $523 | 60¢ | 40¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Sep 8, 2026
- 09:41 PM——$1.00
Bought 1.042731 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 11? at 0.96
- 09:39 PM0X0x9A44718321a6B3ec4D27AcB382B278Df4F116E59-1768310005324$20.00
Bought 71.428572 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 11? at 0.28
- 09:32 PM0X0xDB5$129.30
Bought 862 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 11? at 0.15
- 09:32 PMSASadoshi$150.70
Bought 175.23 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 11? at 0.86
- 09:25 PMSASadoshi$51.60
Bought 60 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 11? at 0.86
- 09:03 PM——$5.45
Bought 6.06 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 11? at 0.9
- 08:41 PMMIMirotadze$50.40
Bought 60 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 11? at 0.84
- 08:02 PM——$1.47
Bought 2.02 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 11? at 0.73
- 08:02 PM——$5.73
Bought 6.3 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 11? at 0.91
- 07:45 PM0X0xDB5$2.55
Bought 15 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 11? at 0.17
- 07:24 PMGOgobblewobble$17.85
Bought 105 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 11? at 0.17
- 06:49 PMGOgobblewobble$104.00
Bought 400 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 11? at 0.26
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「Bitcoin above ___ on September 11?」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，70,000 以 9,940% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 72,000（9,915%），以及 74,000（9,595%）。该市场总成交量已达 $71.2K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。