Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
核心摘要
根据「Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，72,000 以压倒性的 9,885% 获胜概率主导市场；74,000 以 9,820% 位居第二，76,000 以 9,050% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $99.3K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- 72,000 (9,885%)：72,000 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,885¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $11.2K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- 74,000 (9,820%)：作为最可行的替代选项，74,000 保持着 9,820% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 9,820¢。
- 76,000 (9,050%)：以 9,050% 的概率位列第三，市场对 76,000 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）
在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：
- 替代选项：包括 78,000 (6,100%)、80,000 (2,350%)，以及 82,000 (620%)。
- 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 84,000 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 72,000 | 9885.0% | $11.2K | 9885¢ | -9785¢ |
| 2 | 74,000 | 9820.0% | $10.1K | 9820¢ | -9720¢ |
| 3 | 76,000 | 9050.0% | $8.5K | 9050¢ | -8950¢ |
| 4 | 78,000 | 6100.0% | $5.5K | 6100¢ | -6000¢ |
| 5 | 80,000 | 2350.0% | $10.0K | 2350¢ | -2250¢ |
| 6 | 82,000 | 620.0% | $3.2K | 620¢ | -520¢ |
| 7 | 84,000 | 125.0% | $13.3K | 125¢ | -25¢ |
| 8 | 86,000 | 75.0% | $7.5K | 75¢ | 25¢ |
| 9 | 88,000 | 25.0% | $3.4K | 25¢ | 75¢ |
| 10 | 90,000 | 5.0% | $14.3K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 11 | 92,000 | 5.0% | $12.2K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Sep 8, 2026
- 09:48 AM——$1.35
Bought 1.516854 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 10? at 0.89
- 09:48 AM——$1.35
Bought 1.467387 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 10? at 0.92
- 09:47 AM——$1.35
Bought 1.516854 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 10? at 0.89
- 09:47 AM0X0x7875b62d93522284742dE2bd49C2729Ac477E0eF-1773777488385$18.78
Bought 50.756757 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 10? at 0.37
- 09:46 AM——$1.35
Bought 1.467387 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 10? at 0.92
- 09:44 AM——$1.35
Bought 1.467387 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 10? at 0.92
- 09:43 AM——$1.35
Bought 1.4516 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 10? at 0.93
- 09:40 AM0X0x7875b62d93522284742dE2bd49C2729Ac477E0eF-1773777488385$60.00
Bought 545.454546 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 10? at 0.11
- 09:40 AM——$1.35
Bought 1.4516 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 10? at 0.93
- 09:39 AM——$1.35
Bought 1.4516 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 10? at 0.93
- 09:37 AM——$1.35
Bought 1.4516 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 10? at 0.93
- 09:35 AM——$1.35
Bought 1.4516 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 10? at 0.93
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常见问题
当前市场对「Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，72,000 以 9,885% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 74,000（9,820%），以及 76,000（9,050%）。该市场总成交量已达 $99.3K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。