US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon

$119.4K Vol
2026年9月6日
Active
概率趋势
Raphael Collignon 78.0%
Sebastian Gorzny 21.9%

核心摘要

根据「US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前,Completed Match 以压倒性的 5,000% 获胜概率主导市场;US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Set Handicap +/-1.5 以 5,000% 位居第二,US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Match O/U 36.5 以 5,000% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $119.4K,反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:

🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者

  • Completed Match (5,000%):Completed Match 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5,000¢,显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $2.9K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者

  • US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Set Handicap +/-1.5 (5,000%):作为最可行的替代选项,US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Set Handicap +/-1.5 保持着 5,000% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 5,000¢。
  • US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Match O/U 36.5 (5,000%):以 5,000% 的概率位列第三,市场对 US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Match O/U 36.5 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)

在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:

  • 替代选项:包括 US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Total Sets: O/U 4.5 (5,000%)、US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Match O/U 38.5 (5,000%),以及 US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Match O/U 40.5 (5,000%)。
  • 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Set 3 O/U 9.5 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes(成本)买入 No(成本)
1Completed Match5000.0%$2.9K5000¢-4900¢
2US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Set Handicap +/-1.55000.0%$285000¢-4900¢
3US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Match O/U 36.55000.0%$25000¢-4900¢
4US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Total Sets: O/U 4.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
5US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Match O/U 38.55000.0%$435000¢-4900¢
6US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Match O/U 40.55000.0%$115000¢-4900¢
7US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Set 3 O/U 9.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
8US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Set 3 O/U 10.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
9US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Set 4 O/U 8.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
10US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Set 4 O/U 9.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
11US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Set 4 O/U 10.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
12US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Game Spread +/-7.52500.0%$1162500¢-2400¢
13US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Set 3 Winner2500.0%$212500¢-2400¢
14US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Set 4 Winner2350.0%2350¢-2250¢
15US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon2210.0%$101.5K2210¢-2110¢

裁决规则

This market refers to the tennis match between Sebastian Gorzny and Raphael Collignon in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET.

This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Gorzny' if Sebastian Gorzny advances against Raphael Collignon.

This market will resolve to 'Raphael Collignon' if Raphael Collignon advances against Sebastian Gorzny.

If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.

If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Aug 30, 2026

  • 09:06 PM
    ROrobertoxau
    $2.73

    Bought 3.174414 Raphael Collignon for US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon at 0.86

  • 09:05 PM
    SISimpson151
    $5.46

    Bought 6.348835 Raphael Collignon for US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon at 0.86

  • 09:03 PM
    $1.00

    Bought 1.162785 Raphael Collignon for US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon at 0.86

  • 09:03 PM
    REremora-trader
    $2.61

    Bought 3.034878 Raphael Collignon for US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon at 0.86

  • 09:03 PM
    BRBrimoz
    $1,571.06

    Bought 10473.742665 Sebastian Gorzny for US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon at 0.15

  • 08:47 PM
    $25.00

    Bought 28.73563 Raphael Collignon for US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon at 0.87

  • 08:20 PM
    0X0x8A34E9597e450c9f85b56E4a8F212703ab8c92cD-1776046084842
    $30.00

    Bought 34.482753 Raphael Collignon for US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon at 0.87

  • 08:03 PM
    0X0x48cFB6dB98fEfEACc6A3A030a1865de0b6adC7dF-1764056399219
    $28.00

    Bought 200 Sebastian Gorzny for US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon at 0.14

  • 07:50 PM
    JUjuanitooo12358
    $2.54

    Sold 5.65 Collignon for Set Handicap: Collignon (-2.5) vs Gorzny (+2.5) at 0.45

  • 07:50 PM
    JUjuanitooo12358
    $8.60

    Sold 10 Raphael Collignon for US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon at 0.86

  • 07:44 PM
    JIjiffyjoker66888
    $8.70

    Bought 10 Raphael Collignon for US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon at 0.87

  • 07:33 PM
    MOMobyembre
    $244.69

    Bought 281.25 Raphael Collignon for US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon at 0.87

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

ON1
one8tyfive
Event PnL
+$2,280.95
Volume
$11,519.93
Positions
Raphael Collignon
KA2
kapper-betka
Event PnL
-$296.76
Volume
$11,199.98
Positions
Raphael Collignon
BR3
Brimoz
Event PnL
-$41.30
Volume
$10,473.74
Positions
Sebastian Gorzny
FL4
Flaznorp
Event PnL
+$400.95
Volume
$10,266.29
Positions
Sebastian Gorzny
RN5
RN1
Event PnL
-$10.22
Volume
$8,929.40
Positions
Sebastian Gorzny
AS6
astapzippo
Event PnL
-$92.34
Volume
$8,539.54
Positions
Raphael Collignon
UP7
UpTheBlues
Event PnL
+$18.74
Volume
$7,282.80
Positions
Sebastian Gorzny
DV8
dv-pm
Event PnL
+$30.34
Volume
$6,067.50
Positions
Sebastian Gorzny

常见问题

当前市场对「US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon」的共识是什么?

截至最新更新,Completed Match 以 5,000% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Set Handicap +/-1.5(5,000%),以及 US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Match O/U 36.5(5,000%)。该市场总成交量已达 $119.4K,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

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