Another crypto hack over $100M by ___?
核心摘要
根据「Another crypto hack over $100M by ___?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，December 31 以压倒性的 5,350% 获胜概率主导市场；October 31 以 4,150% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- December 31 (5,350%)：December 31 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5,350¢，显示出市场的高度确信。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- October 31 (4,150%)：作为最可行的替代选项，October 31 保持着 4,150% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 4,150¢。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 5350.0% | — | 5350¢ | -5250¢ |
| 2 | October 31 | 4150.0% | — | 4150¢ | -4050¢ |
裁决规则
This is a market on whether any crypto project or exchange suffers an exploit or hack of value at least $100 million USD equivalent between the creation of this market and 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Decentralized exchanges and lending protocol hacks will count.
If a potentially qualifying hack has occurred within market timeframe, but the market’s resolution source has not been updated as of the market’s specified end date, the market may remain open for up to 7 calendar days ET allowing for an update. If no update occurs, the market will resolve according to the data already available.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard (https://rekt.news/leaderboard/), however a credible consensus of reporting may also be used.
常见问题
当前市场对「Another crypto hack over $100M by ___?」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，December 31 以 5,350% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 October 31（4,150%）。该市场总成交量已达 —，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。