Will Russia target Kyiv on...?

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “Will Russia target Kyiv on...?”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, October 1 domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 9905%. October 3 le sigue en segundo lugar con 9180%, mientras que October 2 se sitúa tercero con 8950%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza $121,9K, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• October 1 (9905%): Con la probabilidad más alta, October 1 cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 9905¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado. Solo este contrato ha generado $530 de volumen.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• October 3 (9180%): Como la alternativa más viable, October 3 mantiene una probabilidad del 9180% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 9180¢.
• October 2 (8950%): En tercer lugar con una probabilidad del 8950%, el mercado muestra un escepticismo prudente hacia October 2, tratándolo como un comodín externo salvo que cambie el impulso.

🥉 Nivel 3: Las opciones de cola larga (suman ~0%)

Más allá de las tres primeras opciones, se sigue un amplio campo de variables macro y resultados poco probables. Aunque sus probabilidades individuales son bajas, son coberturas clave para los operadores especulativos:

• Opciones alternativas: Esto incluye October 13 (8700%), October 14 (8700%) y October 15 (8700%).
• Volumen especulativo: A pesar de su baja probabilidad estadística, ciertos contratos de cola larga como October 5 siguen atrayendo un interés notable.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:

Surface-to-air missile strikes;

Small-arms fire;

Ground incursions;

Cyber operations;

Naval gunfire and artillery fire;

Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);

Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;

Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.

Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.

A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv.

The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.