Will Netanyahu announce his retirement from politics by March 31, 2027?

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “Will Netanyahu announce his retirement from politics by March 31, 2027?”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, No domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 7050%. Yes le sigue en segundo lugar con 2950%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza —, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• No (7050%): Con la probabilidad más alta, No cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 7050¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• Yes (2950%): Como la alternativa más viable, Yes mantiene una probabilidad del 2950% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 2950¢.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will retire from politics by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, retiring from politics means permanently leaving all political office, including his seat in the Knesset, the office of Prime Minister, any ministerial post, and the leadership of Likud. A qualifying announcement must state that he is retiring from politics or from political life, or that he will leave all of these positions and will not seek political office again.

An announcement that he will step down from, or not seek, one or more of these positions while continuing to hold or seek another will not qualify (e.g., resigning as Prime Minister or as leader of Likud while remaining a Member of Knesset). An announcement will also not qualify if, as part of the same announcement, he states that he will seek or accept another political office, including the presidency of Israel.

The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate or at any point in the future.

Any qualifying announcement from Netanyahu will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.

Only definitive announcements will count. Statements that he is considering retirement, conditional statements (e.g., that he would retire if a certain event occurs), and announcements of a temporary leave or break from politics will not qualify. An announcement of a plea agreement, pardon, or similar arrangement will qualify if, as part of it, Netanyahu definitively commits to retiring from politics as defined above. Statements by third parties, including political allies or foreign leaders, will not qualify unless confirmed by Netanyahu or one of his official representatives.

The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Netanyahu or one of his official representatives.