Will Iran target Jordan by...?

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “Will Iran target Jordan by...?”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, September 30 domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 6600%. September 15 le sigue en segundo lugar con 3700%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza $65,7K, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• September 30 (6600%): Con la probabilidad más alta, September 30 cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 6600¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado. Solo este contrato ha generado $42.2K de volumen.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• September 15 (3700%): Como la alternativa más viable, September 15 mantiene una probabilidad del 3700% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 3700¢.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Jordan through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Amman time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Jordan. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:

Surface-to-air missile strikes;

Small-arms fire;

Ground incursions;

Cyber operations;

Naval gunfire and artillery fire;

Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);

Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;

Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.

Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.

A military action will be considered directed at Jordan if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of Jordan, including any internal waters.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Amman time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and Jordan and a consensus of credible reporting.