Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, Under domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 9795%. Over le sigue en segundo lugar con 205%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza $32,4K, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• Under (9795%): Con la probabilidad más alta, Under cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 9795¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• Over (205%): Como la alternativa más viable, Over mantiene una probabilidad del 205% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 205¢.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).