Next Gemini Argon released by...?

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “Next Gemini Argon released by...?”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, January 31 domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 2200%. December 31 le sigue en segundo lugar con 1300%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza —, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• January 31 (2200%): Con la probabilidad más alta, January 31 cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 2200¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• December 31 (1300%): Como la alternativa más viable, December 31 mantiene una probabilidad del 1300% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 1300¢.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Argon model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Argon" and be a new Gemini Argon model release designated as newer than Gemini 4 Argon (gemini-4-argon, released October 13, 2026), regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors, including decimal version increases, new whole-number generations, or newer dated builds. For example, a newer Argon model named in the same manner as Gemini 4 Argon, including a decimal increase such as a 4.1 or a new whole-number generation such as a Gemini 5 Argon, or a newer Argon release under a new, distinct model identifier, would qualify, while Gemini 4 Argon itself, including any rollout, promotion, snapshot, price change, or thinking-level setting of it, and models whose name does not include "Argon," such as Gemini Pro, Gemini Flash, or Gemini Flash-Lite models, will not qualify. A qualifying release must carry a new, distinct model identifier; updates published under an unchanged identifier will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.