Lula or Bolsonaro favored on...?

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “Lula or Bolsonaro favored on...?”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, Bolsonaro domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 9955%. Lula le sigue en segundo lugar con 45%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza $84,9K, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• Bolsonaro (9955%): Con la probabilidad más alta, Bolsonaro cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 9955¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• Lula (45%): Como la alternativa más viable, Lula mantiene una probabilidad del 45% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 45¢.

Each market in this event will resolve to "Lula" if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's hourly odds value is higher than Flávio Bolsonaro's hourly odds value in the "Brazil Presidential Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 12:00 PM ET on that market's listed date.

Each market in this event will resolve to "Bolsonaro" if Flávio Bolsonaro's hourly odds value is higher than Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's hourly odds value in the "Brazil Presidential Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 12:00 PM ET on that market's listed date.

If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's and Flávio Bolsonaro's hourly odds values are equal for that "Time Window (ET)", this market will resolve 50-50.

An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent).

If PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes "NO_PRINT" for an option for the specified window, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com has not published anything for the specified window for an option (neither an hourly odds value nor "NO_PRINT"), this market will remain open until a value or "NO_PRINT" for that window is published, and may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after that market's listed date for that purpose. If nothing has been published for the specified window by that time, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva or Flávio Bolsonaro in the "Brazil Presidential Election 2026" listing before the specified window, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point.

If no hourly odds value is published for either of the options between market creation and the end of the specified window, this market will resolve 50-50.

If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed date and time, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option which resolves "Yes". If the winning outcome is neither listed option, this market will resolve 50-50.

If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro in the "Brazil Presidential Election 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/brazil-president-2026.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.