Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, No domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 8150%. Yes le sigue en segundo lugar con 1850%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza $130,4K, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• No (8150%): Con la probabilidad más alta, No cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 8150¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• Yes (1850%): Como la alternativa más viable, Yes mantiene una probabilidad del 1850% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 1850¢.

On September 30, 2026, FlyDubai flight FZ1073 from Dubai to Tel Aviv diverted to Saudi Arabia following an incident in the cockpit in which the co-pilot allegedly stabbed the captain. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/diverted-flydubai-flight-israel-was-not-hijacking-incident-israeli-prime-2026-09-30/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli national government, or an authorized representative of the Israeli national government, publicly announces that Iran or its affiliated groups deliberately caused this incident, by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A public announcement refers to an on-the-record statement issued by the Israeli national government or by its authorized representatives acting in an official capacity on behalf of the Israeli national government. A statement or press release issued by the Israeli national government or any of its agencies will qualify. A Prime Minister or Cabinet Minister’s public statements will always be considered to be issued on-the-record in a capacity representing the Israeli national government for purposes of this market. A statement from a lawmaker or other government official speaking in their own capacity or on behalf of a party not in government will not alone qualify.

For purposes of this market, an affiliated group of Iran is: any organization directly controlled by Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Houthis ("Ansar Allah"), Kata'ib Hezbollah, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Badr Organization, and Harakat al-Nujaba. An unlisted group will only qualify if the Israeli claim itself, or accompanying statements or releases, specifies that the group is a proxy of or otherwise is controlled or directed by Iran. A general statement that it was conducted by an Iranian proxy will also qualify, even if no group is named.

Such a statement will be considered to claim that Iran or its affiliated groups deliberately caused the incident if it explicitly claims that Iran or an affiliated group ordered, carried out, planned, or otherwise directly aided or coordinated the incident. Statements that attribute only inspiration or ideological influence (e.g., "this would not have happened if Iran didn't radicalize terrorists," "the co-pilot was influenced by Hamas' ideas") will not qualify.

Once a qualifying announcement has been made, no subsequent walkback or retraction will be relevant for purposes of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli national government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.