Closer Senate Race: South Dakota or New Mexico?

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “Closer Senate Race: South Dakota or New Mexico?”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, South Dakota domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 5000%. New Mexico le sigue en segundo lugar con 5000%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza —, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• South Dakota (5000%): Con la probabilidad más alta, South Dakota cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 5000¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• New Mexico (5000%): Como la alternativa más viable, New Mexico mantiene una probabilidad del 5000% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 5000¢.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "South Dakota" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in South Dakota has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the New Mexico Senate election.

This market will resolve to "New Mexico" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in New Mexico has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the South Dakota Senate election.

If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.

In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market.

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.