Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, Iotova 40%+ domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 4200%. Iotova 30-40% le sigue en segundo lugar con 4200%, mientras que Iotova 20-30% se sitúa tercero con 4200%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza —, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• Iotova 40%+ (4200%): Con la probabilidad más alta, Iotova 40%+ cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 4200¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• Iotova 30-40% (4200%): Como la alternativa más viable, Iotova 30-40% mantiene una probabilidad del 4200% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 4200¢.
• Iotova 20-30% (4200%): En tercer lugar con una probabilidad del 4200%, el mercado muestra un escepticismo prudente hacia Iotova 20-30%, tratándolo como un comodín externo salvo que cambie el impulso.

🥉 Nivel 3: Las opciones de cola larga (suman ~0%)

Más allá de las tres primeras opciones, se sigue un amplio campo de variables macro y resultados poco probables. Aunque sus probabilidades individuales son bajas, son coberturas clave para los operadores especulativos:

• Opciones alternativas: Esto incluye Iotova 10-20% (4200%), Iotova <10% (4200%) y Gyurov <10% (4200%).
• Volumen especulativo: A pesar de su baja probabilidad estadística, ciertos contratos de cola larga como Gyurov 10-20% siguen atrayendo un interés notable.

The first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the first round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election as published by the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Централна избирателна комисия); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.