Arkansas Senate Election Margin of Victory

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “Arkansas Senate Election Margin of Victory”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, Republican 15-20% domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 2800%. Republican 10-15% le sigue en segundo lugar con 2605%, mientras que Republican 20-25% se sitúa tercero con 1150%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza $9,5K, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• Republican 15-20% (2800%): Con la probabilidad más alta, Republican 15-20% cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 2800¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado. Solo este contrato ha generado $3.4K de volumen.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• Republican 10-15% (2605%): Como la alternativa más viable, Republican 10-15% mantiene una probabilidad del 2605% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 2605¢.
• Republican 20-25% (1150%): En tercer lugar con una probabilidad del 1150%, el mercado muestra un escepticismo prudente hacia Republican 20-25%, tratándolo como un comodín externo salvo que cambie el impulso.

🥉 Nivel 3: Las opciones de cola larga (suman ~0%)

Más allá de las tres primeras opciones, se sigue un amplio campo de variables macro y resultados poco probables. Aunque sus probabilidades individuales son bajas, son coberturas clave para los operadores especulativos:

• Opciones alternativas: Esto incluye Republican 5-10% (1000%), Republican 25-30% (950%) y Republican 30-35% (720%).
• Volumen especulativo: A pesar de su baja probabilidad estadística, ciertos contratos de cola larga como Republican 35-40% siguen atrayendo un interés notable.

The 2026 Arkansas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Arkansas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.