Anthropic’s valuation end of September 2026?

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “Anthropic’s valuation end of September 2026?”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, $1.25-$1.50T domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 6950%. $750B-$1.00T le sigue en segundo lugar con 4350%, mientras que $1.75-$2.00T se sitúa tercero con 2980%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza $1,2K, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• $1.25-$1.50T (6950%): Con la probabilidad más alta, $1.25-$1.50T cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 6950¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado. Solo este contrato ha generado $308 de volumen.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• $750B-$1.00T (4350%): Como la alternativa más viable, $750B-$1.00T mantiene una probabilidad del 4350% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 4350¢.
• $1.75-$2.00T (2980%): En tercer lugar con una probabilidad del 2980%, el mercado muestra un escepticismo prudente hacia $1.75-$2.00T, tratándolo como un comodín externo salvo que cambie el impulso.

🥉 Nivel 3: Las opciones de cola larga (suman ~0%)

Más allá de las tres primeras opciones, se sigue un amplio campo de variables macro y resultados poco probables. Aunque sus probabilidades individuales son bajas, son coberturas clave para los operadores especulativos:

• Opciones alternativas: Esto incluye <$500B (1670%), $1.50-$1.75T (1400%) y $1.00-$1.25T (1205%).
• Volumen especulativo: A pesar de su baja probabilidad estadística, ciertos contratos de cola larga como $2.00-$2.25T siguen atrayendo un interés notable.

This market will resolve according to Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for the last trading day of the specified month.

If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.

If NPM has not published relevant data for the last trading day of the specified month by 1:00 PM ET on the day following the last trading day of the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the last trading day of the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.

If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.

If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider the company’s public market capitalization on the last trading day of the specified month.

Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).

If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.

If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.

The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data. The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.

Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.