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Trump's Mixed Messages on Middle East Impact Market Volatility
Volatility may be receding, though the broad sentiment remains confounded by mixed message from President Trump regarding the Middle East as the White House attempts to threat the needle with comments that will ease the stress of the energy markets and avoid declaring victory prematurely. Indeed, Tuesday's rally was upended by late day tough rhetoric from the president on Truth Social threatening military consequences at 'levels never seen before' if Iran decides to put any mines in the Hormuz Strait, but also hinting at relief if the mines are removed.The markets appear to be swayed that cooler heads will likely prevail, with crude oil futures - the baromenter of geopolitical stress - continuing to back off the overnight highs toward $86. Energy was also the worst performing sector in the S&P 500 as Communication Services and Materials bounced. In the opening hour of the evening session, index futures are flat despite a constructive Q3 earnings update from Oracle.Check out this evening's top movers from around Wall Street, compiled by The Fly.HIGHER AFTER EARNINGS -Domoup 36.5%Auna SAup 17.1%The Beachbody Companyup 11.2%Oracleup 7.7%Franco-Nevadaup 2.4%DOWN AFTER EARNINGS -Groupondown 11.9%AeroVironmentdown 9.7%Westrock Coffeedown 6.2%loanDepotdown 3.6%Cadre Holdingsdown 3.1%
Company Updates 2026 EBITDA Outlook, Growth of 29% to 44%
The company said, "The Company is updating its 2026 outlook for its Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA, which represents growth of 29% to 44% over our full year 2025 results. These estimates incorporate projected customer demand in light of recently announced industry consolidation and the current expectations regarding end-consumer demand for ready-to-drink glass and can volumes. The updated 2026 outlook supersedes any previously disclosed guidance provided by the Company and investors should not rely on any previously disclosed financial guidance."
Scott Ford Reports Q4 Revenue of $339.47M
Reports Q4 revenue $339.47M, consensus $317.4M. Commenting on our results, Scott Ford, CEO and co-founder stated, "As we turn the page on 2025, we are pleased with the progress made toward becoming the premiere integrated, strategic supplier to the pre-eminent global coffee, tea and energy beverage brands, as evidenced by our record results. With the build-out and commercialization of our Conway extracts and ready-to-drink facility in our rearview mirror, our focus shifts to driving volume, optimizing our product mix and maximizing margin across our platform."
Frontier Group Short Interest Rises to 42.1%
Welcome to this week's installment of "The Short Interest Report" - The Fly's weekly recap of short interest trends among some of the most widely followed high-short-float stocks. Using the data from our partner, which utilizes the latest information from stock lenders to estimate short interest changes for thousands of publicly traded companies, this report will screen for some of biggest changes in short interest as a percentage of free float and days-to-cover ratios while also considering the short interest data on some of the more volatile and heavier-traded names of the week. Based on the availability of data from Ortex, the report tracks the trading period that covers prior Friday through Thursday of this week, excluding holidays. As a basis of comparison for stocks discussed below, the S&P 500 index was down 1.1%, the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.6%, the Russell 2000 index was down 3.4%, the Russell 2000 Growth ETFwas down 3.5%, and the Russell 2000 Value ETFwas down 3.2% in the five-day trading session range through March 5.SHORT INTEREST GAINERSAfter its upward inflection from three-month lows below 35% in the final week of 2025, Ortex-reported short interest in Frontier Grouphas been in a steady uptrend, with consistently higher highs and lows. This week, bearish appetite was particularly pronounced as geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East drove an outsized sell-off across the Airlines space with a double-whammy of higher oil prices and heightened safety alertness among travelers. Shorts as a percentage of free float on Frontier rose from 39.1% to 42.1% - the highest level since December. With trading volumes elevated, days-to-cover on Frontier ticked up more modestly however, rising from 6.3 to 6.6. The stock was down 22% in the five-day period covered and, including Friday's 5% drop, has now fallen 47% from early-February highs.Ortex-reported short interest on Upstart Holdingstroughed below 25% in the first week of February as shorts gradually reduced exposure given the stock's 34% decline from early-January highs. With the company whiffing on its Q4 earnings and given the broadening headwinds in the Credit Services industry – where Upstart is also the biggest decliner across most timeframes this year, bears are once again piling into the name with bets of even more pronounced losses. This week, shorts as a percentage of free float in Upstart rose from 30.7% to as high as 33.5% - a three-month high. The stock was down 3.6% in the five-day period covered through Thursday, though with another 5% decline in early Friday trade, the stock has now fallen 47% from January highs.Ortex-reported short interest on Lovesac Companytroughed below 26% early last week, the lowest level since September of last year, but has since tracked higher as shares of the mid-tier Furnishing/Fixture company continued to slide. Shorts as a percentage of free float on the stock was up from 29.2% to 32.0% - a one-month high. With trading volume for Lovesac relatively lower since mid-February, days-to-cover on the name also reached an 11-month high, rising from 9.6 to 10.8. The stock was down 8.4% in the five-day period covered through Thursday, with another 3% in losses in Friday's early trading.SHORT INTEREST DECLINERSOrtex-reported short interest on Shift4 Paymentsbriefly spiked to an all-time high of 53% early in the week before plunging about 20 percentage points, and for the week, shorts as a percentage of free float was down from 47.8% to 33.3%. The stock, meanwhile, was down 3.6% in the five-day period covered from last Friday though this Thursday, though this tally does not include the 16% decline after the company reported in-line Q4 results with much weaker than expected initial FY26 guidance last Thursday morning. Year-to-date, the stock is now down 24%, and the bears may be betting on some mean reversion, both for Shift4 shares as well as for the company's beaten down Infrastructure Software peers.Ortex-reported short interest on Westrock Coffeewas down sharply this week bears book profits heading into the company's Q4 results this Tuesday. Shorts as a percentage of free float had peaked at a six-month high of 46% in the first week of February. In the five-day period through Thursday however, bearish positioning was down over 20 points from 44.1% to 23.9% as shares fell 16%. Earnings have also not been a catalyst for upside in the stock as of late, and while Westrock has been one of the worst Packaged Good small-caps over the past month, bears may have concluded that – in a bid to front-run the challenging consumer backdrop ahead of the company's Q4 announcement – investors may have deliberately reduced exposure.
Westrock Coffee projects FY25 consolidated adjusted EBITDA between $60M and $65M.
Sees FY25 beverage solutions adjusted EBITDA $63M-$68M. sees sustainable sourcing and traceability adjusted EBITDA $14M-$16M. The company stated, "Due to uncertainties regarding projected customer demand resulting from recently announced industry consolidation, and the continued elevation in coffee prices and tariffs, the company is re-evaluating its 2026 outlook provided in its earnings release dated March 11, 2025. The company will update its 2026 outlook when it reports its full year 2025 results."
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