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Polymarket Trading Bot

Polymarket Trading Bot is an AI-driven trading assistant for Polymarket 5-minute BTC/ETH prediction markets. It reliably extracts the critical Price-To-Beat (PTB) using a multi-layer fallback (API → HTML → Playwright → Binance), polls markets every 2 seconds, and pre-fetches PTB as markets appear.

Updated today<1 min setup

Overview

Polymarket Trading Bot is an AI-driven trading assistant for Polymarket 5-minute BTC/ETH prediction markets.

Polymarket Trading Bot is an AI-driven trading assistant for Polymarket 5-minute BTC/ETH prediction markets. It reliably extracts the critical Price-To-Beat (PTB) using a multi-layer fallback (API → HTML → Playwright → Binance), polls markets every 2 seconds, and pre-fetches PTB as markets appear. The decision engine combines position, momentum, RSI, and volume into a 0–100 score and applies strict betting rules (confidence ≥55%, expected value >0.05, target odds <0.90). Designed for real-time monitoring and low-latency execution, it triggers analysis 40 seconds before market close and logs every recommendation for audit and backtesting. Use cases include automated paper trading, live risk-managed bets (opt-in), signal research, and integration into trading workflows. Core advantages are robust PTB retrieval, EV-driven filtering to reduce adverse bets, and transparent, configurable risk controls.

Skill.md

How this skill works

Polymarket Trading Bot is an AI-driven trading assistant for Polymarket 5-minute BTC/ETH prediction markets. It reliably extracts the critical Price-To-Beat (PTB) using a multi-layer fallback (API → HTML → Playwright → Binance), polls markets every 2 seconds, and pre-fetches PTB as markets appear.

SKILL.mdALPHIO / VERIFIED

AI-powered trading bot for Polymarket 5-minute BTC/ETH price prediction markets.

Features

  • Accurate PTB Extraction: Multi-layer fallback (API → HTML → Playwright → Binance)
  • Advanced AI Model: Position + momentum + RSI + volume analysis
  • EV-Based Decisions: Only bet when expected value > 0.05
  • Real-time Monitoring: Auto-detect new markets and pre-fetch PTB
  • Risk Management: Confidence threshold + odds filtering

Quick Start

# Install dependencies
pip3 install playwright requests

# Install Playwright browser
playwright install chromium

# Run the bot
python3 auto_bot_v2.py

How It Works

  1. Market Detection: Polls Polymarket API every 2 seconds
  2. PTB Pre-fetch: Gets Price to Beat when market appears (~10s)
  3. AI Analysis: Triggers 40 seconds before market close
  4. Decision: Outputs bet recommendation (betting disabled by default)

AI Model

Scoring System (0-100)

SignalWeightDescription
Position50%Current price vs PTB (ATR-normalized)
Momentum30%3-min trend + 1-min micro momentum
RSI10%Overbought/oversold correction
Volume10%Volume confirmation

Betting Criteria

  • Confidence ≥ 55%
  • Expected Value > 0.05
  • Target odds < 0.90

Configuration

Edit auto_bot_v2.py to enable real betting:

# Line ~155
execute_bet(slug, direction, 10)  # Uncomment to enable

Files

  • auto_bot_v2.py - Main bot script
  • ai_analyze_v2.py - Decision engine
  • ai_trader/ai_model_v2.py - Scoring model
  • ai_trader/playwright_ptb.py - PTB extraction
  • logs/decisions_v2.jsonl - Decision history

Example Output

🆕 新市场: BTC | btc-updown-5m-1772806500
   结束: 14:20:00 UTC | 剩余: 296s
   📡 提前获取 PTB...
✅ PTB=68824.89 (Playwright, 14.2s)

============================================================
🔔 触发分析: BTC | btc-updown-5m-1772806500 | 剩余 39s
  💰 PTB: $68,824.89
  📊 赔率: UP=0.455 DOWN=0.545
  🤖 AI: UP | 置信度: 88%
  📈 位置: UP(45) 动量: UP(25) ATR: 1.26x
  💵 EV: +0.923 | 目标赔率: 0.455
  ✅ 满足下注条件！conf=88% ev=+0.923 odds=0.455
============================================================

Safety

  • Default: Betting disabled (dry-run mode)
  • Logs: All decisions saved to logs/decisions_v2.jsonl
  • No API keys required for monitoring mode

Requirements

  • Python 3.8+
  • playwright
  • requests

License

MIT

Best used for

When to use it

Polymarket Trading Bot is an AI-driven trading assistant for Polymarket 5-minute BTC/ETH prediction markets. It reliably extracts the critical Price-To-Beat (PTB) using a multi-layer fallback (API → HTML → Playwright → Binance), polls markets every 2 seconds, and pre-fetches PTB as markets appear.

01 · PRE-MEETING

Prepare a decision brief

Turn scattered evidence into a structured case before an investment committee meeting.

02 · TEAM WORKFLOW

Standardize handoffs

Create consistent research outputs across analysts, portfolio managers, and agents.

03 · LIVE UPDATE

Refresh the thesis

Update scenarios after a new catalyst, KPI release, or earnings result.

Community notes

Built to improve with use.

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