The Game Awards: Best Audio Design

$40 Vol
2026年12月11日
Active
機率趨勢
Silent Hill: Townfall 8.5%
Nioh 3 8.5%
Forza Horizon 6 8.0%
Crimson Desert 8.0%
Onimusha: Way of the Sword 8.0%

核心摘要

根據「The Game Awards: Best Audio Design」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前,Forza Horizon 6 以壓倒性的 800% 獲勝機率主導市場;Crimson Desert 以 800% 位居第二,Onimusha: Way of the Sword 以 800% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $40,反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:

🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者

  • Forza Horizon 6 (800%):Forza Horizon 6 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 800¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $40 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者

  • Crimson Desert (800%):作為最可行的替代選項,Crimson Desert 保持著 800% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 800¢。
  • Onimusha: Way of the Sword (800%):以 800% 的機率位列第三,市場對 Onimusha: Way of the Sword 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)

在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:

  • 替代選項:包括 Resident Evil Requiem (750%)、Silent Hill: Townfall (750%),以及 007 First Light (750%)。
  • 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 Pragmata 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes(成本)買入 No(成本)
1Forza Horizon 6800.0%$40800¢-700¢
2Crimson Desert800.0%800¢-700¢
3Onimusha: Way of the Sword800.0%800¢-700¢
4Resident Evil Requiem750.0%750¢-650¢
5Silent Hill: Townfall750.0%750¢-650¢
6007 First Light750.0%750¢-650¢
7Pragmata750.0%750¢-650¢
8Marathon750.0%750¢-650¢
9Phantom Blade Zero750.0%750¢-650¢
10Nioh 3750.0%750¢-650¢
11Pathologic 3750.0%750¢-650¢
12Mina the Hollower750.0%750¢-650¢
13Saros700.0%700¢-600¢
14Reanimal700.0%700¢-600¢
15Control Resonant700.0%700¢-600¢
16Grand Theft Auto VI700.0%700¢-600¢
17Marvel's Wolverine700.0%700¢-600¢
18Phonopolis700.0%700¢-600¢
19Mixtape700.0%700¢-600¢
20Fatal Frame II: Crimson Butterfly Remake700.0%700¢-600¢

裁決規則

The Game Awards are presented annually to honor achievements in the video game industry. The 2026 Game Awards are currently scheduled to be presented on December 10, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed video game that wins the 2026 Game Award for Best Audio Design.

If a game is not officially nominated for the 2026 Game Award for Best Audio Design when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated game whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from The Game Awards, including data from their website (e.g., https://thegameawards.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

常見問題

目前市場對「The Game Awards: Best Audio Design」的共識是什麼?

截至最新更新,Forza Horizon 6 以 800% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 Crimson Desert(800%),以及 Onimusha: Way of the Sword(800%)。該市場總成交量已達 $40,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

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