Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Wayne County (Detroit) Winner

$48.8K Vol
2026年8月4日
Active
機率趨勢
Abdul El-Sayed 85.5%
Haley Stevens 12.5%

核心摘要

根據「Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Wayne County (Detroit) Winner」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Abdul El-Sayed 以壓倒性的 84.5% 獲勝機率主導市場。該市場的下注量已達 $48.8K，反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

  • Abdul El-Sayed (84.5%)：Abdul El-Sayed 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 85¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $33.0K 的成交量。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes（成本）買入 No（成本）
1Abdul El-Sayed84.5%$33.0K85¢16¢

裁決規則

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes from Wayne County in the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the Wayne County results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Wayne County.

AI 估值分析：發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

  • 最被高估的結果：Abdul El-Sayed 當前交易價為 84.5%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 58.4%，形成 -26.1% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
Abdul El-Sayed84.5%58.4%-26.1%

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Aug 2, 2026

  • 06:47 PM
    AMamblified
    $1.00

    Bought 1.162789 Yes for Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? at 0.86

  • 04:16 PM
    WHwhaleP1
    $11.91

    Sold 14.01 Yes for Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? at 0.85

  • 04:16 PM
    PAPavtheGreat
    $503.10

    Bought 585 Yes for Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? at 0.86

  • 03:42 PM
    MAMadwin
    $17.21

    Sold 20.01 No for Will Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? at 0.86

  • 03:42 PM
    MAMadwin
    $28.14

    Sold 33.1 Yes for Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? at 0.85

  • 10:42 AM
    0X0x1cCF406F63D057bFcEAC14a3c37c5C9F42f399eC-1782096702409
    $1.55

    Sold 11.9 Yes for Will Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? at 0.13

  • 10:42 AM
    0X0x1cCF406F63D057bFcEAC14a3c37c5C9F42f399eC-1782096702409
    $1.17

    Sold 8.33 No for Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? at 0.14

  • 07:40 AM
    SUsunnynotbunny
    $30.57

    Sold 36.39 Yes for Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? at 0.84

  • 02:38 AM
    ZZzzzwsxa
    $0.26

    Sold 1.65 No for Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? at 0.16

  • 02:36 AM
    NAnani
    $0.26

    Sold 1.65 No for Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? at 0.16

  • 02:35 AM
    NIninjagamerpinny
    $12.72

    Bought 15.14 Yes for Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? at 0.84

  • 12:51 AM
    MEmerokk
    $2.84

    Sold 21.86 Yes for Will Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? at 0.13

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

JA1
JAMJAMJAM4
Event PnL
-$3,582.56
Volume
$7,574.99
Positions
NoYes
SE2
seal7
Event PnL
+$3,288.68
Volume
$6,270.20
Positions
YesNo
A53
0xa5ef…2966
Event PnL
+$2,294.35
Volume
$4,498.72
Positions
NoNo
ME4
Melody626
Event PnL
+$375.23
Volume
$4,149.47
Positions
YesNo
WA5
wannatakemoney
Event PnL
+$1,137.50
Volume
$2,500.00
Positions
Yes
BE6
bernardbulletin
Event PnL
-$1,029.91
Volume
$2,243.45
Positions
NoYes
AD7
Addarash
Event PnL
-$6.75
Volume
$1,496.63
Positions
Yes
RO8
rocky42007
Event PnL
-$27.88
Volume
$1,191.59
Positions
NoNo

常見問題

目前市場對「Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Wayne County (Detroit) Winner」的共識是什麼？

截至最新更新，Abdul El-Sayed 以 84.5% 的獲勝機率領跑。該市場總成交量已達 $48.8K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同？

即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算，剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差，提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。

市場共識是否對某個結果反應過度？

是的——資料顯示市場對 Abdul El-Sayed 存在明顯的反應過度。人群把其即時交易價值推高至 84.5%，但我們的公允價值評估認為其真實機率僅為 58.4%，形成 -26.1% 的負 EV 差，表明該合約被高估。

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