
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs
核心摘要
根據「LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前,Both Teams Slay a Dragon 以壓倒性的 62% 獲勝機率主導市場。該市場的下注量已達 $603.6K,反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:
🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者
- Both Teams Slay a Dragon (62%):Both Teams Slay a Dragon 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 62¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes(成本) | 買入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 62.0% | — | 62¢ | 38¢ |
裁決規則
This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket quarterfinal 2 match between Eintracht Spandau and Kaufland Hangry Knights in the Prime League 1st Division Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Eintracht Spandau" if Eintracht Spandau win the match against Kaufland Hangry Knights.
This market will resolve to "Kaufland Hangry Knights" if Kaufland Hangry Knights win the match against Eintracht Spandau.
If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 9, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 26, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
AI 估值分析:發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差
人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場,而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布,我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。
將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比,可揭示出重大背離——即期望值(EV)差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果,而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。
頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會
根據最新一輪資料模型測算,以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離:
- 最佳價值標的(最高 EV):我們的模型將 Both Teams Slay a Dragon 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 62% 的交易機率,而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 69.6%——形成可觀的 +7.6% EV 差。
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams Slay a DragonBest EV | 62.0% | 69.6% | +7.6% |
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Aug 26, 2026
- 08:39 AMJAJamesNguyen12$3.00
Bought 8.108107 Kaufland Hangry Knights for LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Kaufland Hangry Knights - Game 2 Winner at 0.37
- 08:39 AMLLLLOTTI$3.20
Bought 5 Eintracht Spandau for LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Kaufland Hangry Knights - Game 2 Winner at 0.64
- 08:37 AM0X0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027$118.80
Bought 169.71 Under for Games Total: O/U 4.5 at 0.7
- 07:59 AMLOlonelysarik$5.00
Bought 6.666664 Eintracht Spandau for LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs at 0.75
- 03:56 AM0X0xa3819B2e87714AD1a83CAA4497aE3618ea2C2961-1776021144038$1.00
Bought 1.315787 Yes for Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? at 0.76
- 03:06 AMMUMutedCarp8305$5.00
Bought 16.66 Eintracht Spandau for Game Handicap: ES (-2.5) vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (+2.5) at 0.3
- 03:06 AM1M1MillionInc$1.00
Bought 3.333332 Eintracht Spandau for Game Handicap: ES (-2.5) vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (+2.5) at 0.3
- 03:06 AMPUpups10$1.00
Bought 3.333332 Eintracht Spandau for Game Handicap: ES (-2.5) vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (+2.5) at 0.3
- 03:06 AM——$2.52
Bought 8.4 Eintracht Spandau for Game Handicap: ES (-2.5) vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (+2.5) at 0.3
- 03:06 AM1M1MillionInc$1.00
Bought 1.333332 Eintracht Spandau for LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs at 0.75
- 03:06 AMPUpups10$1.00
Bought 1.333332 Eintracht Spandau for LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs at 0.75
- 03:06 AM——$12.92
Bought 17.226664 Eintracht Spandau for LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs at 0.75
正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包
常見問題
目前市場對「LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs」的共識是什麼?
截至最新更新,Both Teams Slay a Dragon 以 62% 的獲勝機率領跑。該市場總成交量已達 $603.6K,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。
AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同?
即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算,剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差,提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。
目前哪個結果的期望值(EV)最高?
最新一輪測算顯示,Both Teams Slay a Dragon 是最顯著的錯誤定價。市場對其隱含機率僅給到 62%,而我們的 AI 測算其公允價值為 69.6%——形成 +7.6% 的期望值差,是該市場中最具價值的標的。
