Grok (Web) Outage by...?

根據「Grok (Web) Outage by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，December 31 以壓倒性的 7,100% 獲勝機率主導市場；October 31 以 5,500% 位居第二，August 31 以 1,100% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $221，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• December 31 (7,100%)：December 31 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 7,100¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• October 31 (5,500%)：作為最可行的替代選項，October 31 保持著 5,500% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 5,500¢。
• August 31 (1,100%)：以 1,100% 的機率位列第三，市場對 August 31 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Grok (Web) experiences an incident labeled “outage” on the official xAI Grok (Web) status page between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Only incidents listed under Grok (Web) will be considered. Incidents affecting Grok in X, Grok (iOS), Grok (Android), or similar but not Grok (Web), will not qualify.

Incidents labeled “disruption” or “info” will not qualify.

An incident’s status while it remains ongoing will not determine the market’s resolution; only incidents marked “Resolved” will be considered.

An incident which is marked "Resolved" outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at the end of the listed calendar date (ET), in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked “Resolved,” and resolution of this market will be based on the incident classification displayed immediately after it is marked "Resolved."

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official xAI Grok (Web) status page at https://status.x.ai/grok-com. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until it comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".