
EWC CS2 2026: Qualify to Playoffs
核心摘要
根據「EWC CS2 2026: Qualify to Playoffs」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前,Team Vitality 以壓倒性的 9,300% 獲勝機率主導市場;MOUZ 以 9,000% 位居第二,Team Spirit 以 8,850% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $316,反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:
🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者
- Team Vitality (9,300%):Team Vitality 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 9,300¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $43 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者
- MOUZ (9,000%):作為最可行的替代選項,MOUZ 保持著 9,000% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 9,000¢。
- Team Spirit (8,850%):以 8,850% 的機率位列第三,市場對 Team Spirit 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)
在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:
- 替代選項:包括 Team Falcons (8,450%)、Natus Vincere (8,200%),以及 BB Team (7,750%)。
- 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 G2 Esports 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes(成本) | 買入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Vitality | 9300.0% | $43 | 9300¢ | -9200¢ |
| 2 | MOUZ | 9000.0% | $40 | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 3 | Team Spirit | 8850.0% | — | 8850¢ | -8750¢ |
| 4 | Team Falcons | 8450.0% | — | 8450¢ | -8350¢ |
| 5 | Natus Vincere | 8200.0% | — | 8200¢ | -8100¢ |
| 6 | BB Team | 7750.0% | $21 | 7750¢ | -7650¢ |
| 7 | G2 Esports | 7300.0% | — | 7300¢ | -7200¢ |
| 8 | Aurora Gaming | 6900.0% | $20 | 6900¢ | -6800¢ |
| 9 | FURIA | 6350.0% | $6 | 6350¢ | -6250¢ |
| 10 | Astralis | 6200.0% | — | 6200¢ | -6100¢ |
| 11 | FaZe Clan | 5700.0% | — | 5700¢ | -5600¢ |
| 12 | PVISION | 5400.0% | $6 | 5400¢ | -5300¢ |
| 13 | The MongolZ | 5350.0% | — | 5350¢ | -5250¢ |
| 14 | 9z Globant | 5100.0% | $25 | 5100¢ | -5000¢ |
| 15 | B8 | 4800.0% | — | 4800¢ | -4700¢ |
| 16 | paiN Gaming | 4800.0% | $6 | 4800¢ | -4700¢ |
| 17 | magic | 4350.0% | — | 4350¢ | -4250¢ |
| 18 | BIG | 4350.0% | — | 4350¢ | -4250¢ |
| 19 | Legacy | 4250.0% | $20 | 4250¢ | -4150¢ |
| 20 | GamerLegion | 4250.0% | — | 4250¢ | -4150¢ |
| 21 | 3DMAX | 4100.0% | — | 4100¢ | -4000¢ |
| 22 | FUT Esports | 3950.0% | — | 3950¢ | -3850¢ |
| 23 | TYLOO | 3700.0% | — | 3700¢ | -3600¢ |
| 24 | M80 | 3650.0% | — | 3650¢ | -3550¢ |
| 25 | Wildcard | 3600.0% | $60 | 3600¢ | -3500¢ |
| 26 | Luminosity | 3500.0% | — | 3500¢ | -3400¢ |
| 27 | NIP.eStar | 3200.0% | — | 3200¢ | -3100¢ |
| 28 | 100 Thieves | 2800.0% | — | 2800¢ | -2700¢ |
| 29 | MIBR.LOS | 2550.0% | — | 2550¢ | -2450¢ |
| 30 | Lynn Vision Gaming | 2350.0% | $70 | 2350¢ | -2250¢ |
| 31 | JiJieHao | 1950.0% | — | 1950¢ | -1850¢ |
| 32 | K27 Esports | 1600.0% | — | 1600¢ | -1500¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed team is among the teams that advance from the group stage to the playoff bracket of the Counter-Strike 2 tournament at the 2026 Esports World Cup (EWC 2026), currently scheduled for August 12 – August 23, 2026, with the group stage running August 12 – 16 and the playoffs running August 19 – 23. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No."
A team is considered to have made the playoffs upon officially appearing in the playoff bracket as published by the tournament organizer. Advancement by walkover, forfeit, or opponent withdrawal counts the same as advancement by match result.
If the tournament format is changed such that the size or structure of the playoff bracket differs from the currently announced format, this market will resolve according to the official playoff bracket as published by the tournament organizer.
If this tournament is postponed after August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the playoff field has not been determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, the Esports World Cup; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
常見問題
目前市場對「EWC CS2 2026: Qualify to Playoffs」的共識是什麼?
截至最新更新,Team Vitality 以 9,300% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 MOUZ(9,000%),以及 Team Spirit(8,850%)。該市場總成交量已達 $316,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。
