
NCAA Football 2026 Sun Belt Conference: Winner
核心摘要
根据「NCAA Football 2026 Sun Belt Conference: Winner」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前,James Madison Dukes 以压倒性的 2,550% 获胜概率主导市场;Old Dominion Monarchs 以 1,550% 位居第二,Troy Trojans 以 1,000% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —,反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:
🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者
- James Madison Dukes (2,550%):James Madison Dukes 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 2,550¢,显示出市场的高度确信。
🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者
- Old Dominion Monarchs (1,550%):作为最可行的替代选项,Old Dominion Monarchs 保持着 1,550% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 1,550¢。
- Troy Trojans (1,000%):以 1,000% 的概率位列第三,市场对 Troy Trojans 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)
在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:
- 替代选项:包括 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (900%)、Marshall Thundering Herd (800%),以及 Arkansas State Red Wolves (700%)。
- 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes(成本) | 买入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Madison Dukes | 2550.0% | — | 2550¢ | -2450¢ |
| 2 | Old Dominion Monarchs | 1550.0% | — | 1550¢ | -1450¢ |
| 3 | Troy Trojans | 1000.0% | — | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 4 | Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 900.0% | — | 900¢ | -800¢ |
| 5 | Marshall Thundering Herd | 800.0% | — | 800¢ | -700¢ |
| 6 | Arkansas State Red Wolves | 700.0% | — | 700¢ | -600¢ |
| 7 | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 700.0% | — | 700¢ | -600¢ |
| 8 | App State Mountaineers | 400.0% | — | 400¢ | -300¢ |
| 9 | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | 400.0% | — | 400¢ | -300¢ |
| 10 | Georgia Southern Eagles | 400.0% | — | 400¢ | -300¢ |
| 11 | Georgia State Panthers | 400.0% | — | 400¢ | -300¢ |
| 12 | South Alabama Jaguars | 400.0% | — | 400¢ | -300¢ |
| 13 | Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 400.0% | — | 400¢ | -300¢ |
| 14 | UL Monroe Warhawks | 400.0% | — | 400¢ | -300¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Sun Belt Football Championship Game, determining the champion of the Sun Belt Conference for the 2026 college football season, currently scheduled for December 4, 2026.
If this championship is postponed after December 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."
If multiple teams are declared co-champions, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Sun Belt Conference (https://sunbelt.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
常见问题
当前市场对「NCAA Football 2026 Sun Belt Conference: Winner」的共识是什么?
截至最新更新,James Madison Dukes 以 2,550% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 Old Dominion Monarchs(1,550%),以及 Troy Trojans(1,000%)。该市场总成交量已达 —,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
