Grok (Web) Outage by...?

根据「Grok (Web) Outage by...?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，December 31 以压倒性的 7,100% 获胜概率主导市场；October 31 以 5,500% 位居第二，August 31 以 2,650% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $221，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• December 31 (7,100%)：December 31 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 7,100¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• October 31 (5,500%)：作为最可行的替代选项，October 31 保持着 5,500% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 5,500¢。
• August 31 (2,650%)：以 2,650% 的概率位列第三，市场对 August 31 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Grok (Web) experiences an incident labeled “outage” on the official xAI Grok (Web) status page between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Only incidents listed under Grok (Web) will be considered. Incidents affecting Grok in X, Grok (iOS), Grok (Android), or similar but not Grok (Web), will not qualify.

Incidents labeled “disruption” or “info” will not qualify.

An incident’s status while it remains ongoing will not determine the market’s resolution; only incidents marked “Resolved” will be considered.

An incident which is marked "Resolved" outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at the end of the listed calendar date (ET), in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked “Resolved,” and resolution of this market will be based on the incident classification displayed immediately after it is marked "Resolved."

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official xAI Grok (Web) status page at https://status.x.ai/grok-com. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until it comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".