Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of August 22

根据「Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of August 22」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Been By Now - Morgan Wallen 以压倒性的 4,400% 获胜概率主导市场；hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande 以 4,350% 位居第二，I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift 以 4,300% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $43，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Been By Now - Morgan Wallen (4,400%)：Been By Now - Morgan Wallen 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 4,400¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande (4,350%)：作为最可行的替代选项，hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande 保持着 4,350% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 4,350¢。
• I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift (4,300%)：以 4,300% 的概率位列第三，市场对 I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 Boston - Stella Lefty (4,250%)、Petal - Ariana Grande (4,050%)，以及 Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo (4,000%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Be Her - Ella Langley 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”.

This market will resolve according to the number 2 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of August 22, 2026”. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.