
National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul
核心摘要
根据「National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前,National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Set 1 O/U 8.5 以压倒性的 7,550% 获胜概率主导市场;National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 21.5 以 5,850% 位居第二,National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 22.5 以 5,300% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $106K,反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:
🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者
- National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Set 1 O/U 8.5 (7,550%):National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Set 1 O/U 8.5 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 7,550¢,显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $149 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者
- National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 21.5 (5,850%):作为最可行的替代选项,National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 21.5 保持着 5,850% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 5,850¢。
- National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 22.5 (5,300%):以 5,300% 的概率位列第三,市场对 National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 22.5 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)
在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:
- 替代选项:包括 National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Set 1 O/U 9.5 (5,200%)、National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Set 2 O/U 8.5 (5,050%),以及 National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Set 2 O/U 9.5 (5,050%)。
- 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Set 2 O/U 10.5 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes(成本) | 买入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 7550.0% | $149 | 7550¢ | -7450¢ |
| 2 | National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 21.5 | 5850.0% | $858 | 5850¢ | -5750¢ |
| 3 | National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 22.5 | 5300.0% | $755 | 5300¢ | -5200¢ |
| 4 | National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 5200.0% | — | 5200¢ | -5100¢ |
| 5 | National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 6 | National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 7 | National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 8 | Completed Match | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 9 | National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 23.5 | 4700.0% | $9 | 4700¢ | -4600¢ |
| 10 | National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 4400.0% | $396 | 4400¢ | -4300¢ |
| 11 | National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Set 2 Winner | 4200.0% | — | 4200¢ | -4100¢ |
| 12 | National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Set 1 Winner | 4050.0% | $1.3K | 4050¢ | -3950¢ |
| 13 | National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul | 3850.0% | $96.7K | 3850¢ | -3750¢ |
| 14 | National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 3600.0% | $13.2K | 3600¢ | -3500¢ |
| 15 | National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 2750.0% | — | 2750¢ | -2650¢ |
| 16 | National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 2100.0% | $13.2K | 2100¢ | -2000¢ |
裁决规则
This market refers to the tennis match between Learner Tien and Tommy Paul in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 7, 2026 at 10:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to 'Learner Tien' if Learner Tien advances against Tommy Paul.
This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Learner Tien.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Aug 7, 2026
- 08:24 PM——$2.00
Bought 5.128204 Learner Tien for National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul at 0.39
- 08:22 PMKOKomo431$151.00
Bought 251.666665 Paul for Set 1 Winner: Tien vs Paul at 0.6
- 07:49 PM——$9.71
Bought 15.661289 Tommy Paul for National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul at 0.62
- 07:41 PM——$98.41
Bought 158.725805 Tommy Paul for National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul at 0.62
- 07:40 PMDAdarknight911$154.40
Bought 249.032257 Tommy Paul for National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul at 0.62
- 07:37 PM——$5.00
Bought 12.820511 Learner Tien for National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul at 0.39
- 07:30 PM——$54.13
Bought 87.30645 Tommy Paul for National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul at 0.62
- 07:27 PMFPFPBA1$2.00
Sold 5 Under for Tien vs. Paul: Match O/U 21.5 at 0.4
- 07:26 PMJEjesseis97$47.10
Bought 77.216189 Over for Tien vs. Paul: Match O/U 21.5 at 0.61
- 07:20 PMPRprostozero$154.38
Bought 249 Tommy Paul for National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul at 0.62
- 07:14 PM——$47.13
Bought 87.277776 Over for Tien vs. Paul: Match O/U 22.5 at 0.54
- 07:10 PMASASDF1268$25.00
Bought 64.102563 Learner Tien for National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul at 0.39
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul」的共识是什么?
截至最新更新,National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Set 1 O/U 8.5 以 7,550% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 21.5(5,850%),以及 National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 22.5(5,300%)。该市场总成交量已达 $106K,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
