Which mobs will eliminate Kai or Speed?

根据「Which mobs will eliminate Kai or Speed?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Creeper 以压倒性的 9,000% 获胜概率主导市场；Skeleton 以 7,400% 位居第二，Enderman 以 6,400% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $20，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Creeper (9,000%)：Creeper 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,000¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Skeleton (7,400%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Skeleton 保持着 7,400% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 7,400¢。
• Enderman (6,400%)：以 6,400% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Enderman 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 Blaze (5,900%)、Wither Skeleton (5,700%)，以及 Iron Golem (4,950%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Spider 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed are scheduled to stream a hardcore Minecraft marathon on August 7, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET, in which they will attempt to defeat the Ender Dragon, the Wither, the Warden, and the Elder Guardian in a hardcore Minecraft world on Java Edition, on the same seed, without either player dying in-game. For the purposes of this market, "the marathon" refers to Kai and Speed's Minecraft stream beginning on that date and continuing until they conclude or abandon it.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a death message containing the specified mob's name is displayed for either Kai or Speed following an in-game death during the marathon. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any death message containing the specified mob's name will count, including its plural and possessive forms, and regardless of how the mob caused the in-game death. The exact mob name must appear; a death message naming a different mob whose name contains the specified mob's name will not count. For example, an in-game death to a Wither Skeleton will not resolve "Skeleton" to "Yes," and an in-game death to a Cave Spider will not resolve "Spider" to "Yes."

An in-game death seeming to be caused by the specified mob will not count if the mob's name does not appear in the death message. If a mob has been renamed, this market will resolve based on the actual mob type that caused the in-game death rather than the name displayed in the death message.

A death message produced by any means other than an actual in-game death, including chat messages, overlays, or messages triggered by commands, will not count.

Only one qualifying in-game death is required, and it may be by either player. This market will resolve to "Yes" immediately upon a qualifying in-game death.

Only in-game deaths of the two accounts played by Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed will count. In-game deaths of any other player in the world, including guests, moderators, or co-streamers playing on their own accounts, will not count. It does not matter who is physically at the controls when an in-game death occurs; only whose account died in-game.

In-game deaths in any Minecraft world played as part of the marathon will count, including restarts on new seeds, and including if Kai and Speed modify or abandon the objectives of the challenge, change the ruleset, or play outside of Hardcore mode at any point. No in-game death will count if it occurs while the player in question is in Creative or Spectator mode, or if it results from the use of commands, cheats, or any external tool to spawn entities, alter the world, or deal damage.

Only in-game deaths occurring while at least one of the two players is broadcasting the marathon live will count. Footage of off-stream or previously recorded attempts will not qualify.

This market will remain open until the marathon ends, regardless of whether the challenge is completed. If the marathon ends without a qualifying in-game death, or if the marathon is cancelled or never begins, this market will resolve to "No". If the marathon is still ongoing as of September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on in-game deaths that have occurred up to that time.

The resolution source for this market will be footage from the official broadcasts of the marathon on Kai Cenat's and IShowSpeed's official broadcasts on YouTube and Twitch.