Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Gavin Newsom is dominating the market with an overwhelming 4,550% chance of winning. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez follows in second place at 4,550%, while Jon Ossoff sits in third with 4,550%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Gavin Newsom (4,550%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Gavin Newsom is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 4,550¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (4,550%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez maintains a 4,550% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 4,550¢.
• Jon Ossoff (4,550%): Sitting in third place with a 4,550% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Jon Ossoff, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Kamala Harris (4,550%), Josh Shapiro (4,550%), and Pete Buttigieg (4,550%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Jon Stewart are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.

The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.

An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.

If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.