Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, July 31 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 4,450% chance of winning. September 30 follows in second place at 4,450%, while December 31 sits in third with 4,450%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• July 31 (4,450%): Currently commanding the highest probability, July 31 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 4,450¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• September 30 (4,450%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, September 30 maintains a 4,450% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 4,450¢.
• December 31 (4,450%): Sitting in third place with a 4,450% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward December 31, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Abbas Araghchi ceases to be Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Abbas Araghchi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Abbas Araghchi and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.