Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, September 30 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 4,500% chance of winning. December 31 follows in second place at 4,500%, while July 31 sits in third with 1,950%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• September 30 (4,500%): Currently commanding the highest probability, September 30 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 4,500¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• December 31 (4,500%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, December 31 maintains a 4,500% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 4,500¢.
• July 31 (1,950%): Sitting in third place with a 1,950% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward July 31, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mohammed Ghalibaf ceases to be the Speaker of the Parliament of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Mohammed Ghalibaf's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed Ghalibaf and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.