Polo makes landfall in Mexico as a hurricane?

Laut den neuesten Prognosemarktdaten zur Frage „Polo makes landfall in Mexico as a hurricane?“ haben die Händler einen starken Konsens gebildet.

Derzeit dominiert Yes den Markt mit einer überwältigenden Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 5.000%. No folgt auf dem zweiten Platz mit 5.000%. Das Wettvolumen dieses Marktes hat bereits — erreicht, was auf großes Interesse hindeutet.

Um besser einzuschätzen, wo jedes mögliche Ergebnis steht, lässt sich der Markt anhand der impliziten Wahrscheinlichkeit und der Kontraktpreise in drei Handelsstufen unterteilen:

🥇 Stufe 1: Der dominante Spitzenreiter

• Yes (5.000%): Mit der höchsten Wahrscheinlichkeit wird Yes vom Orderbuch stark favorisiert. Wer auf dieses Ergebnis setzen will, sieht sich einem „Buy Yes“-Kontraktpreis von 5.000¢ gegenüber – ein Zeichen hoher Marktüberzeugung.

🥈 Stufe 2: Die wichtigsten Herausforderer

• No (5.000%): Als tragfähigste Alternative hält No eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 5.000%, einzutreten. Seine „Buy Yes“-Anteile werden derzeit zu 5.000¢ gehandelt.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that Polo (NHC designation EP172026) made landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, by October 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The landfall must occur by that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. If Polo makes landfall more than once, any one qualifying landfall resolves this market to "Yes".

A report means an explicit statement, in a Tropical Cyclone Update, Public Advisory (including intermediate and special advisories), or Discussion issued for Hurricane Polo, that the center made landfall or moved onshore. Landfall occurs when the surface center intersects the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.

A landfall counts if the NHC reports it in Mexico, or on any island, reef, or shoal those products identify as part of Mexico. This market applies no geographic boundary other than the one the NHC applies. A track map, cone graphic, or GIS product will not be considered for resolution, including where the line it draws passes over land. Track reconstruction by any party, an NHC center position that the NHC does not report as a landfall, and landfall reports from any other meteorological agency or from news media, will not be considered for resolution.

Polo must be a hurricane at the reported landfall: maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater, Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php). The intensity is the one the NHC states for the landfall, or, where the NHC states none, the one in the last advisory issued before it. Wind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. If Polo is a tropical storm, a tropical depression, a post-tropical cyclone, or a remnant low at the landfall, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve once the NHC publishes a qualifying report, or at October 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the NHC has published none at that point, or has issued its final advisory on Polo without one, this market will resolve to "No". No substitute data provider will be used.

If the NHC corrects or removes a published landfall report or stated intensity as erroneous before this market resolves, the corrected information will be used; otherwise the published information stands. Otherwise, once the NHC has published a qualifying report, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent revisions. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Updates, Public Advisories, and Discussions issued for Hurricane Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/).