U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?

Laut den neuesten Prognosemarktdaten zur Frage „U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?“ haben die Händler einen starken Konsens gebildet.

Derzeit dominiert October 31 den Markt mit einer überwältigenden Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 60,5%. Das Wettvolumen dieses Marktes hat bereits $86K erreicht, was auf großes Interesse hindeutet.

Um besser einzuschätzen, wo jedes mögliche Ergebnis steht, lässt sich der Markt anhand der impliziten Wahrscheinlichkeit und der Kontraktpreise in drei Handelsstufen unterteilen:

🥇 Stufe 1: Der dominante Spitzenreiter

• October 31 (60,5%): Mit der höchsten Wahrscheinlichkeit wird October 31 vom Orderbuch stark favorisiert. Wer auf dieses Ergebnis setzen will, sieht sich einem „Buy Yes“-Kontraktpreis von 61¢ gegenüber – ein Zeichen hoher Marktüberzeugung. Allein dieser Kontrakt hat $15.3K Volumen erzeugt.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. personnel directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic action directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

"U.S. personnel” refers to members of the U.S. Armed Forces and officers or employees of any U.S. government department or agency acting in an official capacity.

An anti-cartel operation or kinetic action is “directed against a cartel” if it explicitly targets a cartel, a narcotics-trafficking organization, a narco-terrorist organization, or the personnel, assets, infrastructure, or activities of any such group or organization. A specific cartel or organization need not be named.

“Foreign soil” means the terrestrial territory of a country other than the United States, including internal waters within that territory. Territorial seas, other maritime zones, and airspace are excluded. Where borders are disputed, territory claimed by and under the de facto control of a foreign country as of market creation will qualify.

Qualifying operations include actions in which U.S. personnel directly engage cartel personnel, assets, or infrastructure on foreign soil. For example, qualifying operations may include a raid; entry, breach, or search of a target site; a search, arrest, apprehension, detention, boarding, interdiction, or seizure; disabling or destroying cartel assets or infrastructure; or direct ground combat against cartel personnel.

To qualify, U.S. personnel must be physically present on foreign soil and themselves carry out or attempt a qualifying operational action against a cartel target. Mere presence on foreign soil, indirect participation in a joint operation, or involvement limited to training, intelligence, surveillance, logistics, support, advisory, command-and-control, coordination, reconnaissance, patrols, transportation, force protection, inspections, demonstrations, media or information campaigns, or similar activities will not count.

Only operations in which direct U.S. participation is confirmed by official statements from the U.S. government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will qualify. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.

Qualifying kinetic actions include air strikes and surface-to-surface missile strikes, initiated by U.S. personnel, directed against a cartel. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.

The occurrence, attribution to U.S. personnel, timing, location, target, and nature of U.S. participation in a potentially qualifying anti-cartel operation or kinetic action will be determined primarily from official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting. Where credible reporting indicates that a potentially qualifying action occurred within the market timeframe but any fact required for qualification is materially disputed or inconclusive, the market will remain open with respect to that action until the earlier of: i) confirmation that the action qualifies through official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting; or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third full calendar day after the first credibly reported evidence of the action. The date of the first credible report will not count as one of the three full calendar days. If this period ends before the specified date and the available evidence remains inconclusive, the market will remain open pending later confirmation or a subsequent qualifying action. If the period extends past the specified date, the market will remain open until the period ends. After the specified date and the expiration of any applicable three-day period, the market will resolve to “No” unless a qualifying anti-cartel operation or kinetic action has been established through official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.

Während menschlicher Konsens und spekulatives Volumen den breiteren Prognosemarkt prägen, bieten unsere quantitativen Algorithmen eine datengetriebene Gegenperspektive. Durch Analyse fundamentaler Signale, zugrunde liegender Trends und historischer Verteilungen berechnet unser KI-Bewertungsmodell für jedes Ergebnis eine unabhängige „Fair-Value“-Wahrscheinlichkeit.

Der Vergleich dieses Fair Value mit dem aktuellen Marktwert deckt große Abweichungen auf – die sogenannte Erwartungswert-(EV-)Lücke. Kontrakte mit positiver EV-Lücke sind statistisch unterbewertete Ergebnisse, während eine negative EV-Lücke auf eine mögliche Marktüberreaktion hinweist.

Top-KI-Alpha & fehlbepreiste Arbitrage-Chancen

Auf Basis des jüngsten Datenmodell-Laufs fallen mehrere Schlüsselkontrakte mit deutlichen Abweichungen auf:

• Der beste Value-Play (höchster EV): Unser Modell identifiziert October 31 als die attraktivste Value-Chance auf dem Board. Während der Markt ihm nur eine Handelswahrscheinlichkeit von 60,5% zuweist, liegt die Fair-Value-Einschätzung unserer KI bei 64,7% – eine beeindruckende EV-Lücke von +4,2%.