Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by...?

Laut den neuesten Prognosemarktdaten zur Frage „Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by...?“ haben die Händler einen starken Konsens gebildet.

Derzeit dominiert December 31 den Markt mit einer überwältigenden Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 3.050%. October 31 folgt auf dem zweiten Platz mit 1.450%. Das Wettvolumen dieses Marktes hat bereits $5,9K erreicht, was auf großes Interesse hindeutet.

Um besser einzuschätzen, wo jedes mögliche Ergebnis steht, lässt sich der Markt anhand der impliziten Wahrscheinlichkeit und der Kontraktpreise in drei Handelsstufen unterteilen:

🥇 Stufe 1: Der dominante Spitzenreiter

• December 31 (3.050%): Mit der höchsten Wahrscheinlichkeit wird December 31 vom Orderbuch stark favorisiert. Wer auf dieses Ergebnis setzen will, sieht sich einem „Buy Yes“-Kontraktpreis von 3.050¢ gegenüber – ein Zeichen hoher Marktüberzeugung. Allein dieser Kontrakt hat $2.9K Volumen erzeugt.

🥈 Stufe 2: Die wichtigsten Herausforderer

• October 31 (1.450%): Als tragfähigste Alternative hält October 31 eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 1.450%, einzutreten. Seine „Buy Yes“-Anteile werden derzeit zu 1.450¢ gehandelt.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Saudi troops enter any part of Marib Governorate, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Saudi troops" refers to active military personnel officially affiliated with Saudi Arabia. Only members of the regular armed forces of Saudi Arabia will qualify. Foreign fighters, private military contractors, mercenaries, or any other personnel recruited, paid, trained, equipped or directed by Saudi Arabia who are not members of the Saudi Arabian armed forces will not qualify, regardless of whether they operate under Saudi command or on Saudi Arabia’s behalf. Members of the armed forces of any other state, including those operating as part of a Saudi-led coalition, will not qualify.

"Marib Governorate" refers to the entirety of Marib Governorate, Yemen, as defined by its official administrative boundaries.

"Enter" means that the Saudi troops, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Marib Governorate, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Saudi troop entry will not qualify without actual entry being established.

The entrance of Saudi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify.

If the occurrence or timing of a potentially qualifying entry cannot be determined on the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market may remain open for three calendar days (ET) after the specified date. If Saudi troop entry into the specified territory is not established by this market's resolution sources by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia, including the Saudi Ministry of Defense; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.