Max Miller out as US Rep by December 31, 2026?

Laut den neuesten Prognosemarktdaten zur Frage „Max Miller out as US Rep by December 31, 2026?“ haben die Händler einen starken Konsens gebildet.

Derzeit dominiert No den Markt mit einer überwältigenden Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 7.250%. Yes folgt auf dem zweiten Platz mit 2.750%. Das Wettvolumen dieses Marktes hat bereits $3,2K erreicht, was auf großes Interesse hindeutet.

Um besser einzuschätzen, wo jedes mögliche Ergebnis steht, lässt sich der Markt anhand der impliziten Wahrscheinlichkeit und der Kontraktpreise in drei Handelsstufen unterteilen:

🥇 Stufe 1: Der dominante Spitzenreiter

• No (7.250%): Mit der höchsten Wahrscheinlichkeit wird No vom Orderbuch stark favorisiert. Wer auf dieses Ergebnis setzen will, sieht sich einem „Buy Yes“-Kontraktpreis von 7.250¢ gegenüber – ein Zeichen hoher Marktüberzeugung.

🥈 Stufe 2: Die wichtigsten Herausforderer

• Yes (2.750%): Als tragfähigste Alternative hält Yes eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 2.750%, einzutreten. Seine „Buy Yes“-Anteile werden derzeit zu 2.750¢ gehandelt.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Max Miller's departure as a member of the United States House of Representatives is officially announced by December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise it will resolve to "No".

The departure will be considered to be announced when Max Miller, the United States House of Representatives, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Max Miller has ceased or will cease to hold the position of US Representative from Ohio's Seventh Congressional District. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.

The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if specified conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.

Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).

Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.

If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.

If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the specified date without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if major news agencies of record confirm the departure by the specified date.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Max Miller and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.