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backtesting-frameworks

The Backtesting Frameworks skill enables users to create robust backtesting systems for trading strategies, focusing on avoiding common biases such as look-ahead, survivorship, and overfitting.

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Overview

The Backtesting Frameworks skill enables users to create robust backtesting systems for trading strategies, focusing on avoiding common biases such as look-ahead, survivorship, and overfitting.

The Backtesting Frameworks skill enables users to create robust backtesting systems for trading strategies, focusing on avoiding common biases such as look-ahead, survivorship, and overfitting. This skill is essential when developing trading algorithms, validating strategy performance, and constructing comprehensive backtesting infrastructures. Key features include structured backtest designs, walk-forward analysis, and mitigation strategies for biases that can distort performance estimates. It allows users to effectively compare strategy alternatives and implement realistic transaction cost models, ensuring reliable outcomes. Utilizing this skill is crucial for traders and developers seeking to enhance their strategy evaluation processes.

Skill.md

How this skill works

The Backtesting Frameworks skill enables users to create robust backtesting systems for trading strategies, focusing on avoiding common biases such as look-ahead, survivorship, and overfitting.

SKILL.mdALPHIO / VERIFIED

Backtesting Frameworks

Build robust, production-grade backtesting systems that avoid common pitfalls and produce reliable strategy performance estimates.

When to Use This Skill

  • Developing trading strategy backtests
  • Building backtesting infrastructure
  • Validating strategy performance
  • Avoiding common backtesting biases
  • Implementing walk-forward analysis
  • Comparing strategy alternatives

Core Concepts

1. Backtesting Biases

BiasDescriptionMitigation
Look-aheadUsing future informationPoint-in-time data
SurvivorshipOnly testing on survivorsUse delisted securities
OverfittingCurve-fitting to historyOut-of-sample testing
SelectionCherry-picking strategiesPre-registration
TransactionIgnoring trading costsRealistic cost models

2. Proper Backtest Structure

Historical Data
      │
      ▼
┌─────────────────────────────────────────┐
│              Training Set               │
│  (Strategy Development & Optimization)  │
└─────────────────────────────────────────┘
      │
      ▼
┌─────────────────────────────────────────┐
│             Validation Set              │
│  (Parameter Selection, No Peeking)      │
└─────────────────────────────────────────┘
      │
      ▼
┌─────────────────────────────────────────┐
│               Test Set                  │
│  (Final Performance Evaluation)         │
└─────────────────────────────────────────┘

3. Walk-Forward Analysis

Window 1: [Train──────][Test]
Window 2:     [Train──────][Test]
Window 3:         [Train──────][Test]
Window 4:             [Train──────][Test]
                                     ─────▶ Time

Implementation Patterns

Pattern 1: Event-Driven Backtester

from abc import ABC, abstractmethod
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from datetime import datetime
from decimal import Decimal
from enum import Enum
from typing import Dict, List, Optional
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np

class OrderSide(Enum):
    BUY = "buy"
    SELL = "sell"

class OrderType(Enum):
    MARKET = "market"
    LIMIT = "limit"
    STOP = "stop"

@dataclass
class Order:
    symbol: str
    side: OrderSide
    quantity: Decimal
    order_type: OrderType
    limit_price: Optional[Decimal] = None
    stop_price: Optional[Decimal] = None
    timestamp: Optional[datetime] = None

@dataclass
class Fill:
    order: Order
    fill_price: Decimal
    fill_quantity: Decimal
    commission: Decimal
    slippage: Decimal
    timestamp: datetime

@dataclass
class Position:
    symbol: str
    quantity: Decimal = Decimal("0")
    avg_cost: Decimal = Decimal("0")
    realized_pnl: Decimal = Decimal("0")

    def update(self, fill: Fill) -> None:
        if fill.order.side == OrderSide.BUY:
            new_quantity = self.quantity + fill.fill_quantity
            if new_quantity != 0:
                self.avg_cost = (
                    (self.quantity * self.avg_cost + fill.fill_quantity * fill.fill_price)
                    / new_quantity
                )
            self.quantity = new_quantity
        else:
            self.realized_pnl += fill.fill_quantity * (fill.fill_price - self.avg_cost)
            self.quantity -= fill.fill_quantity

@dataclass
class Portfolio:
    cash: Decimal
    positions: Dict[str, Position] = field(default_factory=dict)

    def get_position(self, symbol: str) -> Position:
        if symbol not in self.positions:
            self.positions[symbol] = Position(symbol=symbol)
        return self.positions[symbol]

    def process_fill(self, fill: Fill) -> None:
        position = self.get_position(fill.order.symbol)
        position.update(fill)

        if fill.order.side == OrderSide.BUY:
            self.cash -= fill.fill_price * fill.fill_quantity + fill.commission
        else:
            self.cash += fill.fill_price * fill.fill_quantity - fill.commission

    def get_equity(self, prices: Dict[str, Decimal]) -> Decimal:
        equity = self.cash
        for symbol, position in self.positions.items():
            if position.quantity != 0 and symbol in prices:
                equity += position.quantity * prices[symbol]
        return equity

class Strategy(ABC):
    @abstractmethod
    def on_bar(self, timestamp: datetime, data: pd.DataFrame) -> List[Order]:
        pass

    @abstractmethod
    def on_fill(self, fill: Fill) -> None:
        pass

class ExecutionModel(ABC):
    @abstractmethod
    def execute(self, order: Order, bar: pd.Series) -> Optional[Fill]:
        pass

class SimpleExecutionModel(ExecutionModel):
    def __init__(self, slippage_bps: float = 10, commission_per_share: float = 0.01):
        self.slippage_bps = slippage_bps
        self.commission_per_share = commission_per_share

    def execute(self, order: Order, bar: pd.Series) -> Optional[Fill]:
        if order.order_type == OrderType.MARKET:
            base_price = Decimal(str(bar["open"]))

            # Apply slippage
            slippage_mult = 1 + (self.slippage_bps / 10000)
            if order.side == OrderSide.BUY:
                fill_price = base_price * Decimal(str(slippage_mult))
            else:
                fill_price = base_price / Decimal(str(slippage_mult))

            commission = order.quantity * Decimal(str(self.commission_per_share))
            slippage = abs(fill_price - base_price) * order.quantity

            return Fill(
                order=order,
                fill_price=fill_price,
                fill_quantity=order.quantity,
                commission=commission,
                slippage=slippage,
                timestamp=bar.name
            )
        return None

class Backtester:
    def __init__(
        self,
        strategy: Strategy,
        execution_model: ExecutionModel,
        initial_capital: Decimal = Decimal("100000")
    ):
        self.strategy = strategy
        self.execution_model = execution_model
        self.portfolio = Portfolio(cash=initial_capital)
        self.equity_curve: List[tuple] = []
        self.trades: List[Fill] = []

    def run(self, data: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
        """Run backtest on OHLCV data with DatetimeIndex."""
        pending_orders: List[Order] = []

        for timestamp, bar in data.iterrows():
            # Execute pending orders at today's prices
            for order in pending_orders:
                fill = self.execution_model.execute(order, bar)
                if fill:
                    self.portfolio.process_fill(fill)
                    self.strategy.on_fill(fill)
                    self.trades.append(fill)

            pending_orders.clear()

            # Get current prices for equity calculation
            prices = {data.index.name or "default": Decimal(str(bar["close"]))}
            equity = self.portfolio.get_equity(prices)
            self.equity_curve.append((timestamp, float(equity)))

            # Generate new orders for next bar
            new_orders = self.strategy.on_bar(timestamp, data.loc[:timestamp])
            pending_orders.extend(new_orders)

        return self._create_results()

    def _create_results(self) -> pd.DataFrame:
        equity_df = pd.DataFrame(self.equity_curve, columns=["timestamp", "equity"])
        equity_df.set_index("timestamp", inplace=True)
        equity_df["returns"] = equity_df["equity"].pct_change()
        return equity_df

Pattern 2: Vectorized Backtester (Fast)

import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
from typing import Callable, Dict, Any

class VectorizedBacktester:
    """Fast vectorized backtester for simple strategies."""

Best used for

When to use it

The Backtesting Frameworks skill enables users to create robust backtesting systems for trading strategies, focusing on avoiding common biases such as look-ahead, survivorship, and overfitting.

01 · PRE-MEETING

Prepare a decision brief

Turn scattered evidence into a structured case before an investment committee meeting.

02 · TEAM WORKFLOW

Standardize handoffs

Create consistent research outputs across analysts, portfolio managers, and agents.

03 · LIVE UPDATE

Refresh the thesis

Update scenarios after a new catalyst, KPI release, or earnings result.

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