Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by...?

根據「Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，August 30 以壓倒性的 8.5% 獲勝機率主導市場；June 30 以 2% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $66.8K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• August 30 (8.5%)：August 30 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 9¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $60.8K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• June 30 (2%)：作為最可行的替代選項，June 30 保持著 2% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 2¢。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Valve adds the map Cobblestone to the official map pool by the listed date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the listed market will resolve to "No".

If Cobblestone is added to the Active Duty pool, it must remain there continuously for at least 48 hours for the relevant market to resolve to "Yes". Temporary additions (e.g., for testing) that are reversed within 48 hours will not count. If Cobblestone is added after the deadline, the relevant market will resolve to "No", even if the addition was announced earlier.

For the purpose of this market, "Valve" refers to Valve Corporation, the developer and publisher of the Counter-Strike series.

For the purpose of this market, the "official map pool" refers to the Active Duty map group in Counter-Strike 2 (CS2), which consists of the maps eligible for both competitive matchmaking and professional tournaments.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

• 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 June 30 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 2% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 50.1%——形成可觀的 +48.1% EV 差。