Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?

根據「Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，September 30 以壓倒性的 4,650% 獲勝機率主導市場；December 31 以 4,500% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• September 30 (4,650%)：September 30 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,650¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• December 31 (4,500%)：作為最可行的替代選項，December 31 保持著 4,500% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,500¢。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.578748° N, 37.616899° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).

Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.

Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.