Next Grok Model: Text Arena Debut?

根據「Next Grok Model: Text Arena Debut?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，1480+ 以壓倒性的 4,700% 獲勝機率主導市場；1450+ 以 4,650% 位居第二，1440+ 以 4,600% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• 1480+ (4,700%)：1480+ 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,700¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• 1450+ (4,650%)：作為最可行的替代選項，1450+ 保持著 4,650% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,650¢。
• 1440+ (4,600%)：以 4,600% 的機率位列第三，市場對 1440+ 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 1460+ (4,500%)，以及 1470+ (4,450%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 1460+ 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next xAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must be attributed to xAI and have “Grok” in its displayed model name, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, version numbers, dates, or descriptors. For example, grok-5-high, grok-4.5-thinking, or similar would qualify. Models not attributed to xAI, or xAI models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” will not qualify.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.

If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.

A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".