Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by...?

根據「Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，December 31, 2026 以壓倒性的 10.5% 獲勝機率主導市場。該市場的下注量已達 $51.7K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• December 31, 2026 (10.5%)：December 31, 2026 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 11¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $587 的成交量。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:

* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)

* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant

* Being formally booked or processed following detention

* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station

* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney

* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention

* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed

* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)

* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest

* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

• 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 December 31, 2026 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 10.5% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 17.1%——形成可觀的 +6.6% EV 差。